SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z6923 – SI Industrial Recession Regime
US industrial production and manufacturing capacity utilization composite flags industrial-recession regimes; the state-conditional spread is 501 basis points between extremes, driven by silver’s dual-use industrial demand.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.064
Industrial recession composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Normal
1345 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals industrial expansion; negative equals industrial recession
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
Days since last event
1386
Last event: May 03, 2021
Nearest threshold
+0.14
To cross into Industrial Expansion
Typical run length
52 days
Based on 16 historical Normal runs; 25-75 pct range: 22-209 days
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Silver is 50 percent industrial. US industrial production contractions historically crush industrial silver demand and leave only investment demand on the bid side. The the US industrial-production index plus MCUMFN composite captures the regime earlier than the ISM PMI alone. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 36 years Phase +1 industrial expansion state has delivered mean plus 4.51 percent forward 60 day silver return. Phase -1 industrial recession state has delivered mean minus 0.50 percent. Today the composite reads +0.064, in Normal territory.
LIVE CHART
SI Industrial Recession Regime: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks industrial recession regime. The pale green band marks industrial expansion regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.064 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
-0.88% (baseline +1.11%)
SAMPLE N
9,024 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal. Sample N=9,024 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Silver is 50 percent industrial. US industrial production contractions historically crush industrial silver demand and leave only investment demand on the bid side. The the US industrial-production index plus MCUMFN composite captures the regime earlier than the ISM PMI alone.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.064 placing the dot inside the Normal band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.11 percent, across 9,024 trading days. State-conditional means below.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial expansion | +1 | 10.2% (918 d) | +4.51% | +3.40pp | Mar 2021, Mar 2020, Sep 2008 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 73.7% (6647 d) | +0.99% | -0.12pp | Jul 2021, Mar 2021, Dec 2020 | |
| Industrial recession | -1 | 16.2% (1459 d) | -0.50% | -1.61pp | May 2021, Mar 2000, Dec 1999 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Silver is 50 percent industrial. US industrial production contractions historically crush industrial silver demand and leave only investment demand on the bid side. The the US industrial-production index plus MCUMFN composite captures the regime earlier than the ISM PMI alone. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Silver is 50 percent industrial. US industrial production contractions historically crush industrial silver demand and leave only investment demand on the bid side. The the US industrial-production index plus MCUMFN composite captures the regime earlier than the ISM PMI alone.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run much longer or shorter than mean sample; macroeconomic context dominates.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 03:46 PM ET