SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z85421 – SI CFTC DCOT 4-Week Change Z
Speculator positioning velocity drives silver reversal dynamics; silver underperforms after crowded-long acceleration and outperforms after crowded-short extremes.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.411
CFTC 4W change composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate NEG
28 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals crowded long velocity; negative equals crowded short velocity
Sample
37 years
Live since 1989-11
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
CFTC Disaggregated managed-money 4-week change measures how fast speculators are chasing silver either long or short. Crowded-long velocity (very positive) historically precedes correction windows; crowded-short velocity (very negative) precedes rallies. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 37 years Phase -1 crowded short velocity state has delivered mean plus 2.31 percent forward 60 day silver return. Phase 0 normal state has delivered mean plus 0.54 percent. Today the composite reads -0.411, in Moderate NEG territory.
LIVE CHART
SI CFTC DCOT 4-Week Change Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks crowded short velocity regime. The pale green band marks crowded long velocity regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.411 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.02 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,276 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate NEG. Sample N=9,276 days since 1989-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
CFTC Disaggregated managed-money 4-week change measures how fast speculators are chasing silver either long or short. Crowded-long velocity (very positive) historically precedes correction windows; crowded-short velocity (very negative) precedes rallies.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.411 placing the dot inside the Moderate NEG band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- T10YIE 10-year inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.02 percent, across 9,276 trading days. State-conditional means below.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long velocity | +1 | 40.7% (1983 d) | +1.05% | -0.74pp | Sep 2026, Aug 2026, Jun 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 18.8% (914 d) | +2.30% | +0.51pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| Crowded short velocity TODAY | -1 | 40.5% (1974 d) | +2.31% | +0.52pp | Sep 2026, Jul 2026, Jun 2026 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Speculator positioning velocity moves silver prices on a 4-to-8-week horizon. When managed money chases silver long aggressively (4-week z-score runs high) a positioning crowd forms; when the same cohort covers shorts fast a reverse crowd forms. The engine reads CFTC Disaggregated Managed Money net position, takes 4-week change, z-scores against trailing baseline, and bounds through tanh.
Why it matters
CFTC Disaggregated managed-money 4-week change measures how fast speculators are chasing silver either long or short. Crowded-long velocity (very positive) historically precedes correction windows; crowded-short velocity (very negative) precedes rallies.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 37 years. Individual regime windows can run much longer or shorter than mean sample; macroeconomic context dominates.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:03 PM ET