SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z85617 – SI Junior Silver Miners Relative Strength
Junior silver miners (SILJ) carry operational leverage to silver price; relative-strength regime captures when silver equity flow is leading or lagging the metal itself.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.927
SILJ relative strength composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Extreme POS
68 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals juniors outperform; negative equals juniors underperform
Sample
15 years
Live since 2011-01
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Junior silver-mining equities (SILJ ETF) have operational leverage to silver and typically lead the metal at inflection points. When juniors outperform silver, equity-market risk appetite is flowing into the sector; when juniors underperform, risk appetite is withdrawing even if silver is holding bid. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Today the composite reads +0.927, in Extreme POS territory.
LIVE CHART
SI Junior Silver Miners Relative Strength: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks juniors underperform regime. The pale green band marks juniors outperform regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.927 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.16 percent)
SAMPLE N
4,120 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Extreme POS. Sample N=4,120 days since 2011-01.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Junior silver-mining equities (SILJ ETF) have operational leverage to silver and typically lead the metal at inflection points. When juniors outperform silver, equity-market risk appetite is flowing into the sector; when juniors underperform, risk appetite is withdrawing even if
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.927 placing the dot inside the Extreme POS band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- T10YIE 10-year inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.16 percent, across 3,975 trading days. State-conditional means below.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juniors outperform | +1 | 1.5% (62 d) | +4.59% | +1.76pp | Jul 2026, Sep 2025, May 2020 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 95.2% (3923 d) | +2.57% | -0.27pp | Sep 2026, Jun 2026, Oct 2025 | |
| Juniors underperform | -1 | 3.3% (135 d) | +10.08% | +7.25pp | May 2026, Apr 2025, Mar 2023 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Junior silver-mining equities (SILJ ETF) have operational leverage to silver and typically lead the metal at inflection points. When juniors outperform silver, equity-market risk appetite is flowing into the sector; when juniors underperform, risk appetite is withdrawing even if silver is holding bid. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Junior silver-mining equities (SILJ ETF) have operational leverage to silver and typically lead the metal at inflection points. When juniors outperform silver, equity-market risk appetite is flowing into the sector; when juniors underperform, risk appetite is withdrawing even if silver is holding bid.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 15 years. Individual regime windows can run much longer or shorter than mean sample; macroeconomic context dominates.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:03 PM ET