SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z85702 – SI KC Fed Manufacturing Regime
Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey captures Tenth District industrial pulse; the z-score regime tracks silver industrial-demand turning points one to two months ahead of the national ISM print.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.823
KC Fed mfg regime composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Extreme POS
255 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals kc mfg expansion; negative equals kc mfg contraction
Sample
37 years
Live since 1989-11
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey covers a large US industrial district. The composite index z-score leads the national ISM reading by one to two months, giving silver industrial-demand regime detection ahead of consensus. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 37 years Phase -1 kc mfg contraction state has delivered mean plus 1.55 percent forward 60 day silver return. Phase 0 normal state has delivered mean plus 0.37 percent. Today the composite reads +0.823, in Extreme POS territory.
LIVE CHART
SI KC Fed Manufacturing Regime: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks kc mfg contraction regime. The pale green band marks kc mfg expansion regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.823 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.02 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,276 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Extreme POS. Sample N=9,276 days since 1989-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey covers a large US industrial district. The composite index z-score leads the national ISM reading by one to two months, giving silver industrial-demand regime detection ahead of consensus.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.823 placing the dot inside the Extreme POS band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- T10YIE 10-year inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.02 percent, across 9,276 trading days. State-conditional means below.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC Mfg expansion TODAY | +1 | 46.0% (2876 d) | +1.42% | -0.28pp | Oct 2025, Jan 2025, Sep 2024 | |
| Normal | 0 | 12.5% (778 d) | +3.20% | +1.50pp | Sep 2025, Oct 2024, Jul 2024 | |
| KC Mfg contraction | -1 | 41.5% (2592 d) | +1.55% | -0.15pp | Dec 2024, Sep 2024, Apr 2024 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey covers a large US industrial district. The composite index z-score leads the national ISM reading by one to two months, giving silver industrial-demand regime detection ahead of consensus. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey covers a large US industrial district. The composite index z-score leads the national ISM reading by one to two months, giving silver industrial-demand regime detection ahead of consensus.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 37 years. Individual regime windows can run much longer or shorter than mean sample; macroeconomic context dominates.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:03 PM ET