SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z96318 – SI China Geopolitical Risk Change
The SI China Geopolitical Risk Change signal captures a distinct silver market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a tanh-bounded composite between minus one and plus one.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.644
SI China Geopolitical Risk Change composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate NEG
26 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals elevated china gpr; negative equals calm china gpr
Sample
41 years
Live since 1985-05
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The SI China Geopolitical Risk Change signal captures a distinct silver market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a tanh-bounded composite between minus one and plus one. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 41 years Phase +1 elevated china gpr state has returned on average plus 0.32 percent forward 60-day silver return. Phase -1 calm china gpr state has returned on average plus 1.65 percent. Today the composite reads -0.644, in Moderate NEG territory.
LIVE CHART
SI China Geopolitical Risk Change: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks calm china gpr regime. The pale green band marks elevated china gpr regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.644 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +2.44 percent)
SAMPLE N
10,456 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate NEG. Sample N=10,456 days since 1985-05.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The SI China Geopolitical Risk Change signal captures a distinct silver market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a tanh-bounded composite between minus one and plus one.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.644 placing the dot inside the Moderate NEG band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 2.44 percent, median plus 3.10 percent, across 10,396 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elevated China GPR | +1 | 34.5% (3609 d) | +2.07% | -0.37pp | Aug 2026, Apr 2026, Dec 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 30.3% (3171 d) | +2.56% | +0.13pp | Sep 2026, Jul 2026, Dec 2025 | |
| Calm China GPR TODAY | -1 | 35.2% (3676 d) | +2.69% | +0.25pp | Oct 2026, Jul 2026, Jun 2026 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The SI China Geopolitical Risk Change signal captures a distinct silver market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a tanh-bounded composite between minus one and plus one. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
The SI China Geopolitical Risk Change signal captures a distinct silver market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a tanh-bounded composite between minus one and plus one.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 41 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 04:58 PM ET