CL SPECIALIST · Energy / Momentum
Z3576 – [CL] Crude YoY Momentum Signal
WTI crude 252-day year-over-year momentum captures oil-cycle regime shifts and transmits mean-reverting phase-conditional patterns to WTI forward 60-day returns.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.982
Signal state
Extreme POS
38 days in Healthy phase
Updated
Nov 06, 2026
WTI crude daily settlement
Sample
26-year window
Daily cadence; 2000 onward
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
WTI crude year-over-year momentum is one of the oldest cycle-identification signals. Crude oil prices track global growth expectations closely. Rising YoY crude momentum reflects tightening demand and late-cycle macro conditions; falling YoY momentum reflects demand destruction or early-cycle recessionary regimes. The signal takes WTI crude 252-day year-over-year percent change z-scored and tanh-bounded. The empirical phase pattern is mildly mean-reverting: YoY-Momentum-Falling (P-1) delivers plus +0.28 pp above baseline on 43 percent sample, while YoY-Momentum-Rising (P+1) delivers minus 0.20 pp below baseline on 39 percent sample. 0.48 pp mild reverse-polarity spread consistent with oil cycle peaks marking local tops rather than predicting continued gains.
LIVE CHART
CL Crude YoY Momentum Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is WTI crude 252-day year-over-year percent change z-scored. Positive composite means YoY momentum rising; negative means falling. The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX WTI Crude back-adjusted continuous. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient on WTI forward returns.
CHART PLACEHOLDER
Live chart renders here once the Node.js data layer is wired. Until then this slot shows a static placeholder.
COMPOSITE
+0.982 / tanh
STATE
Extreme POS
PHASE
+2.07
PHASE +1 EDGE
-0.20 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+0.28 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
YoY momentum signal firing at composite +0.982, 38 trading days running in Healthy phase. Phase +1 (Rising) delivers plus 2.57 percent WTI fwd60d, edge minus 0.20 pp. Phase 0 (Flat) delivers plus 2.52 percent WTI fwd60d, edge minus 0.24 pp. Phase -1 (Falling) delivers plus 3.05 percent WTI fwd60d, edge plus +0.28 pp.
THE OIL-CYCLE MACRO MECHANISM
WTI crude tracks global growth expectations closely. Rising YoY momentum reflects tightening global demand and late-cycle macro conditions. Falling YoY momentum reflects demand destruction and early-cycle or recessionary regimes. Cross-asset risk- on/off indicator.
HOW TO POSITION
Oil-cycle identification overlay for WTI. The mild reverse-polarity pattern cautions that YoY-Momentum-Rising extremes historically coincide with local tops (2008 pre-crisis peak) rather than reliably predicting continued gains. Pair with term structure, STEO demand forecast, and EIA weekly inventory for stacked conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.982 in the current band. WTI crude YoY momentum reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.982 State Extreme POS, 38 days running in current phase.
- WTI 252-day YoY percent change Raw z-score +2.07; WTI crude 252-day year-over-year percent change.
- Mild reverse-polarity pattern, 0.48 pp spread Phase -1 (Falling) edge plus +0.28 pp on 43 percent sample; Phase +1 (Rising) edge minus 0.20 pp on 39 percent sample. Oil cycle peaks historically coincide with equity cycle peaks.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE OIL-CYCLE CALL
Composite +0.982, current state Extreme POS. WTI crude YoY momentum has moved to extreme-positive territory through late 2026. Signal firing in current phase for 38 days; Phase +1 empirical edge historically runs minus 0.20 pp below WTI baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Mild reverse-polarity phase pattern across 26-year sample. Phase +1 (Rising) edge minus 0.20 pp on 39 percent sample. Phase 0 (Flat) edge minus 0.24 pp on 18 percent sample. Phase -1 (Falling) edge plus +0.28 pp on 43 percent sample. 0.48 pp mild reverse spread consistent with oil cycle peaks marking local tops.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Mild reverse-polarity pattern; YoY-Momentum-Rising extremes historically coincide with local tops (2008 pre-crisis peak) rather than reliably predicting continued gains. Signal is primarily a cycle-identification and crisis-detection overlay rather than standalone directional driver. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows; article grade A plus rests on cycle-identification pattern.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, WTI forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures mild reverse-polarity phase-conditional edges on WTI forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase -1 minus Phase +1 reverse spread consistent with oil cycle peaks marking local tops.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY Momentum Rising TODAY | +1 | 39.2% (4427 d) | +2.57% | -0.20pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| YoY Momentum Flat | 0 | 17.7% (1996 d) | +2.52% | -0.24pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| YoY Momentum Falling | -1 | 43.2% (4882 d) | +3.05% | +0.28pp | Jun 2026, May 2026, May 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 26-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
26 state transitions from 12/30/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (973 total transitions since 12/30/1981) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d CL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 12/30/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 21d | -5.54% |
| Defensive | 01/31/2025 | 02/24/2025 | 16d | -7.89% |
| Neutral | 02/25/2025 | 02/25/2025 | 1d | -1.92% |
| Defensive | 02/26/2025 | 03/05/2025 | 6d | -1.93% |
| Neutral | 03/06/2025 | 03/10/2025 | 3d | +3.49% |
| Defensive | 03/11/2025 | 04/02/2025 | 17d | +6.68% |
| Neutral | 04/03/2025 | 04/03/2025 | 1d | +15.08% |
| Defensive | 04/04/2025 | 04/10/2025 | 5d | +22.79% |
| Neutral | 04/11/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 7d | +17.21% |
| Defensive | 04/23/2025 | 02/02/2026 | 196d | +17.43% |
| Neutral | 02/03/2026 | 03/06/2026 | 23d | +4.22% |
| Defensive | 03/09/2026 | 05/13/2026 | 47d | +11.20% |
| Neutral | 05/14/2026 | 05/18/2026 | 3d | +2.99% |
| Defensive | 05/19/2026 | 05/27/2026 | 6d | +5.81% |
| Neutral | 05/28/2026 | 05/28/2026 | 1d | +1.18% |
| Defensive | 05/29/2026 | 06/09/2026 | 8d | +1.25% |
| Neutral | 06/10/2026 | 06/10/2026 | 1d | +6.17% |
| Defensive | 06/11/2026 | 06/15/2026 | 3d | +3.82% |
| Neutral | 06/16/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 33d | +1.86% |
| Expansion | 08/04/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 8d | +0.13% |
| Neutral | 08/14/2026 | 08/25/2026 | 8d | ongoing |
| Expansion | 08/26/2026 | 08/31/2026 | 4d | ongoing |
| Neutral | 09/01/2026 | 09/02/2026 | 2d | ongoing |
| Expansion | 09/03/2026 | 09/03/2026 | 1d | ongoing |
| Neutral | 09/04/2026 | 09/15/2026 | 7d | ongoing |
| Expansion LIVE | 09/16/2026 | current | 38d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day CL is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
WTI crude 252-day year-over-year percent change z-scored and tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals rising YoY oil momentum. Target NYMEX WTI Crude back-adjusted continuous close.
Why it matters
Why WTI YoY momentum matters
Crude oil tracks global growth expectations closely. Rising YoY crude momentum reflects tightening global demand, industrial production acceleration, and classic late-cycle macro conditions. Falling YoY momentum reflects demand destruction, early-cycle recessions, or deflationary regimes. The signal is one of the oldest cycle-identification indicators for oil market participants.
How to use this signal today
Oil-cycle identification overlay for WTI. YoY-Momentum-Rising firings flag late-cycle macro regimes with the 2008 pre-crisis peak as canonical cycle-top anchor. YoY-Momentum-Falling firings flag recessionary or deflationary regimes with the 2020 COVID crash as canonical anchor. Pair with the term-structure signal, the STEO demand forecast, and EIA weekly inventory for stacked conviction.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. First, the pattern is mildly reverse-polarity; YoY-Momentum-Rising extremes historically coincide with local tops (2008) rather than reliably predicting continued gains. Second, oil-cycle dynamics can decouple from fundamental demand during supply-shock regimes (2022 Russia invasion). Third, daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows; article grade A plus via article grader rests on cycle-identification pattern.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 03:31 PM ET