CL · Energy / Inventory
Z4235 – [CL] EIA Crude Stocks Signal
EIA weekly US crude inventory YoY z-score captures the stocks-tight-or-loose regime and transmits the highest-frequency physical-balance signal to WTI via the inventory supply channel.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.501
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Signal state
Extreme POS
9 days in Healthy phase
Updated
Nov 11, 2026
EIA weekly petroleum status
Sample
44-year window
Daily cadence; 1982 onward
As of Nov 11, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The EIA weekly petroleum status report publishes US crude stocks every Wednesday at 10:30 ET. Year-over-year delta relative to the same week prior year is the cleanest high-frequency measure of inventory tightness. When YoY stocks run low, the physical market is tight and WTI receives a bullish signal; when YoY stocks run high, oversupply weighs on WTI. The signal takes negated YoY delta, z-scored on three years, tanh-bounded. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Stocks tight) delivers +1.62 pp edge on 45 percent sample; Phase -1 (Stocks loose) delivers -0.70 pp on 39 percent sample. 2.32 pp spread via the inventory supply channel.
LIVE CHART
CL EIA Crude Stocks Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is EIA weekly US crude stocks YoY delta z-scored on three years, inverted and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means stocks running below prior year (tight regime); negative means stocks running above prior year (loose regime). The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX WTI Crude ratio-adjusted continuous. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient.
COMPOSITE
+0.501 / tanh
STATE
Extreme POS
PHASE
+0.55
PHASE +1 EDGE
+1.62 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-0.70 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
EIA crude stocks signal firing at composite +0.501, 9 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 (Tight) delivers plus 4.01 percent WTI fwd60d; Phase -1 (Loose) delivers plus 1.69 percent.
THE INVENTORY MECHANISM
Low US crude stocks relative to prior year tighten the physical balance; WTI receives a bullish signal via supply scarcity. High stocks loosen the balance and transmit a bearish signal. Weekly EIA release is the highest-frequency physical-balance measure available.
HOW TO POSITION
Inventory regime overlay for WTI. Tight firings warn of supply scarcity and bullish setup. Loose firings confirm oversupply regime. Pair with Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, strategic-reserve flow, and term structure for stacked physical-balance conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.501 in the current band. EIA crude stocks signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.501 State Extreme POS, 9 days running in current phase.
- EIA WCESTUS1 weekly YoY z-score Raw z-score +0.55; year-over-year delta against prior year same week.
- 2.32 pp spread, inventory supply channel Phase +1 edge +1.62 pp on 45 percent sample; Phase -1 edge -0.70 pp on 39 percent sample via inventory supply channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE INVENTORY CALL
Composite +0.501, current state Extreme POS. EIA crude stocks signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Healthy firing for 9 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 (Stocks tight) edge +1.62 pp on 45 percent sample. Phase 0 (Normal) edge -2.83 pp on 16 percent sample. Phase -1 (Stocks loose) edge -0.70 pp on 39 percent sample. 2.32 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
EIA weekly reports have a five-day publication lag and occasional revisions. YoY comparison can be distorted by unusual prior-year events (SPR releases, pipeline outages). Signal does not distinguish stock location (Cushing versus Gulf Coast versus PADD5); pair with Cushing-specific and refinery-input overlays for complete context.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, WTI forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on WTI forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the inventory supply channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks tight TODAY | +1 | 44.8% (4039 d) | +4.01% | +1.62pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Jul 2026 | |
| Stocks normal | 0 | 15.9% (1435 d) | -0.43% | -2.83pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2026, Jul 2026 | |
| Stocks loose | -1 | 39.3% (3551 d) | +1.69% | -0.70pp | Aug 2026, Feb 2026, Nov 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 44-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
19 state transitions from 07/25/2025 to 11/11/2026. Full history (214 total transitions since 12/03/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d CL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 07/25/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10d | +5.37% |
| Defensive | 08/08/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 5d | +7.24% |
| Neutral | 08/15/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10d | +5.91% |
| Defensive | 08/29/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 39d | +3.67% |
| Neutral | 10/24/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10d | +1.73% |
| Defensive | 11/07/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 5d | +0.99% |
| Neutral | 11/14/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 5d | +1.39% |
| Defensive | 11/21/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 56d | +4.61% |
| Neutral | 02/13/2026 | 02/19/2026 | 4d | +8.28% |
| Defensive | 02/20/2026 | 05/28/2026 | 68d | +7.14% |
| Neutral | 05/29/2026 | 06/25/2026 | 19d | +1.25% |
| Expansion | 06/26/2026 | 07/16/2026 | 14d | +6.09% |
| Neutral | 07/17/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 5d | +4.68% |
| Expansion | 07/24/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10d | +3.73% |
| Neutral | 08/07/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 5d | -2.74% |
| Defensive | 08/14/2026 | 10/08/2026 | 39d | -3.05% |
| Expansion | 10/09/2026 | 10/22/2026 | 10d | ongoing |
| Neutral | 10/23/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 5d | ongoing |
| Expansion LIVE | 10/30/2026 | current | 9d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day CL is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Low US crude stocks relative to prior year tighten the physical balance and support WTI; high stocks loosen the balance and weigh on WTI. EIA WCESTUS1 weekly US crude stocks year-over-year delta z-scored on a three-year window, inverted and tanh-bounded, captures that regime. Target NYMEX WTI Crude ratio-adjusted continuous close.
Why it matters
Why EIA weekly crude stocks matter for WTI
The EIA weekly petroleum status report is the single most-watched short-term supply balance report for US crude. Published every Wednesday at 10:30 ET, it provides the highest-frequency clean measure of inventory tightness. Year-over-year comparison is the standard analyst framing because it normalizes for seasonal patterns (summer driving, winter heating draws) and captures the structural tightness or looseness of the balance. Low YoY stocks tighten the physical balance and transmit bullish to WTI via supply scarcity; high YoY stocks loosen the balance. Petroleum trading desks and refiners watch the Wednesday release as a top-of-book market-moving event.
How to use this signal today
Inventory regime overlay for WTI via EIA weekly crude stocks YoY z-score. Tight firings warn of supply scarcity with the 2007-08 commodity supercycle and 2022 Russia-invasion window as canonical Phase +1 anchors. Loose firings confirm oversupply with the 2015-16 shale glut as canonical Phase -1 anchor. Pair with Strait of Hormuz chokepoint signal, strategic-reserve flow (US SPR plus EU plus China), term structure (backwardation, timespreads), and PADD3 refinery input for stacked inventory-plus-fundamental conviction.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. First, EIA weekly reports have a five-day publication lag and occasional revisions that can retroactively change the signal. Second, YoY comparison can be distorted by unusual prior-year events (2022 SPR release program artificially tightened YoY comparisons through 2023 as SPR normalized). Third, signal does not distinguish stock location (Cushing versus Gulf Coast versus PADD5); pair with Cushing-specific and refinery-input overlays for complete context. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 12, 2026 03:14 PM ET