HO · Energy / Trucking Demand
Z101003 – [HO] HO Cass Freight Expenditures Signal
Elevated US Cass Freight expenditures signal strong trucking demand that transmits bullish to NYMEX Heating Oil directly, since the Heating Oil contract trades ULSD, the same diesel fuel trucks burn; compressed Cass freight spend signals.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.936
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Signal state
Surge Freight Boom
27 days in Phase 3 phase
Phase
+1.70
Positive equals freight spend up regime; negative equals freight spend down regime.
Sample
Multi-year window
Daily cadence
As of Nov 09, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Elevated US Cass Freight expenditures signal strong trucking demand that transmits bullish to NYMEX Heating Oil directly, since the Heating Oil contract trades ULSD, the same diesel fuel trucks burn; compressed Cass freight spend signals weak trucking demand and bearish Heating Oil. The signal takes Cass Freight Index expenditures component, z-scored against 24-month rolling window, tanh-bounded. Cass measures the dollar value of US trucking shipments. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Freight spend up) delivers +7.05 pp edge on 15 percent sample; Phase -1 (Freight spend down) delivers -7.31 pp on 29 percent sample. 14.36 pp spread via the US trucking freight expenditure demand channel.
LIVE CHART
HO HO Cass Freight Expenditures Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the HO Cass Freight Expenditures composite value, tanh-bounded. The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous close. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient. Positive composite reflects freight spend up regime; negative composite reflects freight spend down regime.
COMPOSITE
+0.936 / tanh
STATE
Surge Freight Boom
PHASE
+1.70
PHASE +1 EDGE
+7.05 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-7.31 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Surge Freight Boom
STATE AND HISTORY
HO Cass Freight Expenditures signal firing at composite +0.936, 27 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 delivers plus 12.09 percent Heating Oil fwd60d; Phase -1 delivers minus 2.27 percent.
THE MECHANISM
The signal takes Cass Freight Index expenditures component, z-scored against 24-month rolling window, tanh-bounded. Cass measures the dollar value of US trucking shipments.
HOW TO POSITION
HO Cass Freight Expenditures overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect freight spend up regime. Phase -1 firings reflect freight spend down regime. Pair with related Heating Oil signals for stacked conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.936 in the current band. HO Cass Freight Expenditures signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.936 State Surge Freight Boom, 27 days running in current phase.
- 14.36 pp spread, US trucking freight expenditure demand channel Phase +1 edge +7.05 pp on 15 percent sample; Phase -1 edge -7.31 pp on 29 percent sample via US trucking freight expenditure demand channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CALL
Composite +0.936, current state Surge Freight Boom. HO Cass Freight Expenditures signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Phase 3 firing for 27 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 edge +7.05 pp on 15 percent sample. Phase 0 edge +2.18 pp on 56 percent sample. Phase -1 edge -7.31 pp on 29 percent sample. 14.36 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Cass expenditures include rate and volume effects; cannot separate. Monthly data has 15-day publication lag. Signal captures spot-rate trucking, not contract-fleet diesel demand. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, Heating Oil forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on Heating Oil forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the US trucking freight expenditure demand channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freight spend up | +1 | 15.0% (290 d) | +12.09% | +7.05pp | Sep 2026, May 2026, Apr 2026 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 55.8% (1077 d) | +7.22% | +2.18pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, Apr 2026 | |
| Freight spend down | -1 | 29.1% (562 d) | -2.27% | -7.31pp | Dec 2024, Jan 2024, Dec 2023 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
13 state transitions from 12/02/2024 to 11/09/2026. Full history (41 total transitions since 03/12/2019) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d HO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive | 12/02/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 1d | -1.57% |
| Neutral | 12/03/2024 | 01/30/2026 | 291d | -3.33% |
| Expansion | 02/02/2026 | 02/03/2026 | 2d | +2.33% |
| Neutral | 02/04/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 17d | +5.02% |
| Expansion | 03/02/2026 | 03/03/2026 | 2d | +9.34% |
| Neutral | 03/04/2026 | 03/31/2026 | 20d | +10.41% |
| Expansion | 04/01/2026 | 04/01/2026 | 1d | +13.09% |
| Neutral | 04/02/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 20d | +13.87% |
| Expansion | 05/01/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 63d | +1.22% |
| 2 | 08/03/2026 | 08/31/2026 | 21d | +1.58% |
| 3 | 09/01/2026 | 09/01/2026 | 1d | ongoing |
| 2 | 09/02/2026 | 10/01/2026 | 21d | ongoing |
| 3 LIVE | 10/02/2026 | current | 27d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day HO is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Elevated US Cass Freight expenditures signal strong trucking demand that transmits bullish to NYMEX Heating Oil directly, since the Heating Oil contract trades ULSD, the same diesel fuel trucks burn; compressed Cass freight spend signals weak trucking demand and bearish Heating Oil. The signal takes Cass Freight Index expenditures component, z-scored against 24-month rolling window, tanh-bounded. Cass measures the dollar value of US trucking shipments. Target NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous.
Why it matters
Why HO Cass Freight Expenditures matters for Heating Oil
Elevated US Cass Freight expenditures signal strong trucking demand that transmits bullish to NYMEX Heating Oil directly, since the Heating Oil contract trades ULSD, the same diesel fuel trucks burn; compressed Cass freight spend signals weak trucking demand and bearish Heating Oil. The signal takes Cass Freight Index expenditures component, z-scored against 24-month rolling window, tanh-bounded. Cass measures the dollar value of US trucking shipments. Transmission is via the US trucking freight expenditure demand channel.
How to use this signal today
HO Cass Freight Expenditures overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect freight spend up regime; Phase -1 firings reflect freight spend down. Pair with companion Heating Oil signals listed in Related.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. Cass expenditures include rate and volume effects; cannot separate. Monthly data has 15-day publication lag. Signal captures spot-rate trucking, not contract-fleet diesel demand. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 10, 2026 04:38 PM ET