CL · Energy / Macro Regime
Z1177 – [CL] CPI Inflation Regime Signal
US CPI year-over-year z-score captures the inflation-versus-disinflation macro regime and transmits stagflation-and-reflation signals to WTI via the real-asset inflation-hedge channel.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.927
Signal state
Extreme POS
67 days in Healthy phase
Updated
Nov 11, 2026
BLS CPI monthly release
Sample
44-year window
Daily cadence; 1982 onward
As of Nov 11, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
US CPI year-over-year z-score captures the broad inflation regime and provides a macro-overlay context for WTI. Inflation regimes historically coincide with real-asset bid including crude and other commodities; disinflation regimes coincide with real-asset outflow. Stagflation is the canonical oil bull setup. The signal takes CPIAUCSL year-over-year z-scored on five years, tanh-bounded. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Inflation regime) delivers -1.43 pp edge on 35 percent sample; Phase -1 (Disinflation) delivers +0.88 pp on 49 percent sample. 2.31 pp spread via the real-asset inflation-hedge channel.
LIVE CHART
CL CPI Inflation Regime Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is US CPIAUCSL year-over-year z-scored on a five-year rolling window, tanh-bounded. Positive composite means inflation running above the five-year average (inflation regime); negative means running below (disinflation regime). The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX WTI Crude ratio-adjusted continuous. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient.
COMPOSITE
+0.927 / tanh
STATE
Extreme POS
PHASE
+1.64
PHASE +1 EDGE
-1.43 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+0.88 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
CPI inflation signal firing at composite +0.927, 67 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 (Inflation) delivers plus 0.97 percent WTI fwd60d; Phase -1 (Disinflation) delivers plus 3.27 percent.
THE INFLATION MECHANISM
Elevated US inflation drives real-asset allocation into commodities including crude as an inflation hedge. Disinflation reverses that flow. Stagflation (high inflation plus weak growth) is the canonical oil bull setup historically visible in the 1970s and periods of 2008 and 2022.
HOW TO POSITION
Macro regime overlay for WTI. Inflation firings warn of real-asset bid and bullish setup. Disinflation firings confirm bearish setup. Pair with NFCI financial conditions, inventory signals, and term structure for stacked macro-plus-fundamental conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.927 in the current band. CPI inflation signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.927 State Extreme POS, 67 days running in current phase.
- US CPIAUCSL monthly YoY z-score Raw z-score +1.64; headline CPI year-over-year z-scored on five-year window.
- 2.31 pp spread, real-asset inflation-hedge channel Phase +1 edge -1.43 pp on 35 percent sample; Phase -1 edge +0.88 pp on 49 percent sample via real-asset inflation-hedge channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE INFLATION CALL
Composite +0.927, current state Extreme POS. CPI inflation signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Healthy firing for 67 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 (Inflation regime) edge -1.43 pp on 35 percent sample. Phase 0 (Neutral) edge +0.40 pp on 16 percent sample. Phase -1 (Disinflation) edge +0.88 pp on 49 percent sample. 2.31 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
CPI is a lagging indicator with roughly a two-week publication lag; monthly cadence makes signal slow. CPI YoY comparisons can be distorted by base effects (favorable or unfavorable prior-year comparisons). Signal captures broad inflation regime but does not distinguish oil-driven inflation from other components; inflation and oil can feed back circularly. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, WTI forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on WTI forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the real-asset inflation-hedge channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation regime TODAY | +1 | 35.1% (3170 d) | +0.97% | -1.43pp | Aug 2026, Apr 2026, Mar 2021 | |
| Neutral | 0 | 16.2% (1464 d) | +2.79% | +0.40pp | Jun 2026, Mar 2026, Mar 2023 | |
| Disinflation | -1 | 48.7% (4391 d) | +3.27% | +0.88pp | Jun 2023, Mar 2020, Aug 2019 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 44-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
4 state transitions from 03/02/2026 to 11/11/2026. Full history (96 total transitions since 12/03/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d CL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 03/02/2026 | 04/09/2026 | 28d | +9.34% |
| Expansion | 04/10/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 35d | +9.70% |
| Neutral | 06/01/2026 | 08/07/2026 | 48d | +0.99% |
| Expansion LIVE | 08/10/2026 | current | 67d | -2.42% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day CL is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Elevated US inflation drives real-asset allocation into commodities including crude as an inflation hedge; disinflation reverses that mechanism. US CPIAUCSL year-over-year z-scored on a five-year window and tanh-bounded captures that regime. Target NYMEX WTI Crude ratio-adjusted continuous close.
Why it matters
Why CPI inflation regime matters for WTI
Macro inflation regime shapes real-asset allocation decisions across institutional portfolios. When US CPI runs above the five-year average, institutional allocators tilt into commodities including crude as an inflation hedge. When inflation runs below average, real-asset flows reverse. The transmission channel operates through portfolio rebalancing and real-asset risk-premium repricing. Stagflation (elevated inflation with weak growth) has historically been the canonical oil bull setup, visible in the 1970s, parts of 2008, and most recently 2022. Petroleum trading desks and multi-asset portfolio managers watch CPI monthly releases alongside PCE inflation data.
How to use this signal today
Macro inflation regime overlay for WTI via US CPI YoY z-score. Inflation firings warn of real-asset bid with the 2008 commodity-inflation spike and 2022 post-COVID inflation spike as canonical Phase +1 anchors. Disinflation firings confirm real-asset outflow with the 2015 disinflation plus shale glut as canonical Phase -1 anchor. Pair with NFCI financial conditions (macro companion), inventory signals (supply balance), term structure (backwardation), and strategic-reserve flow for stacked macro-plus-fundamental conviction.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. First, CPI is a lagging indicator with roughly a two-week publication lag; monthly cadence makes signal slow and backward-looking. Second, CPI YoY comparisons can be distorted by base effects as unfavorable or favorable prior-year comparisons work through the sample. Third, signal captures broad inflation regime but does not distinguish oil-driven inflation from services or housing inflation; inflation and oil can feed back circularly and the signal can appear to confirm a regime that crude itself is driving. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 12, 2026 03:37 PM ET