CL · Energy / Refinery Demand
Z3783 – [CL] PADD3 Refinery Input Signal
EIA PADD3 Gulf Coast monthly refinery crude net input year-over-year z-score captures the dominant US crude-demand sink regime and transmits refining-utilization signals to WTI via the physical-demand channel.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.899
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Signal state
Moderate NEG
70 days in Stress phase
Updated
Nov 09, 2026
EIA monthly refinery report
Sample
44-year window
Daily cadence; 1982 onward
As of Nov 09, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
PADD3 refers to the Gulf Coast refining region and represents roughly half of total US crude consumption. When Gulf refinery throughput runs above prior year, utilization is high and crude demand strengthens; when throughput runs below prior year, demand softens. The signal takes PADD3 monthly refinery net input year-over-year delta, z-scored on five years, tanh-bounded. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Refinery accel) delivers +0.35 pp edge on 30 percent sample; Phase -1 (Refinery decel) delivers -1.95 pp on 42 percent sample. 2.30 pp spread via the refining-utilization channel.
LIVE CHART
CL PADD3 Refinery Input Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is EIA PADD3 Gulf Coast monthly refinery net input year-over-year z-scored on five years, tanh-bounded. Positive composite means Gulf throughput running above prior year (demand strengthening); negative means throughput below prior year (demand softening). The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX WTI Crude ratio-adjusted continuous. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient.
COMPOSITE
-0.899 / tanh
STATE
Moderate NEG
PHASE
-1.45
PHASE +1 EDGE
+0.35 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-1.95 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
PADD3 refinery signal firing at composite -0.899, 70 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 (Accel) delivers plus 2.74 percent WTI fwd60d; Phase -1 (Decel) delivers plus 0.45 percent.
THE REFINERY MECHANISM
PADD3 covers Gulf Coast refineries that consume roughly half of total US crude. Rising throughput year-over-year signals strengthening demand for crude; falling throughput signals softening demand. Hurricane shutdowns, maintenance cycles, and demand swings all show up here.
HOW TO POSITION
Refining-utilization overlay for WTI. Accel firings warn of strengthening demand and bullish setup. Decel firings confirm softening demand regime. Pair with EIA weekly crude stocks, Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, and NFCI financial conditions for stacked demand-plus-supply conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.899 in the current band. PADD3 refinery signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.899 State Moderate NEG, 70 days running in current phase.
- PADD3 monthly refinery net input YoY z-score Raw z-score -1.45; year-over-year delta z-scored on five-year window.
- 2.30 pp spread, refining-utilization channel Phase +1 edge +0.35 pp on 30 percent sample; Phase -1 edge -1.95 pp on 42 percent sample via refining-utilization channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE REFINERY CALL
Composite -0.899, current state Moderate NEG. PADD3 refinery signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Stress firing for 70 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 (Refinery accel) edge +0.35 pp on 30 percent sample. Phase 0 (Normal) edge +2.48 pp on 28 percent sample. Phase -1 (Refinery decel) edge -1.95 pp on 42 percent sample. 2.30 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
EIA monthly refinery reports have roughly a two-month publication lag; the signal is slow-moving and typically does not catch rapid demand swings. Hurricane-driven shutdowns can produce temporary decels that are not demand-driven; pair with Gulf hurricane-proximity overlays. Signal covers PADD3 only and does not capture refining elsewhere (PADD1 East Coast, PADD2 Midwest, PADD5 West Coast).
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, WTI forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on WTI forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the refining-utilization channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refinery accel | +1 | 29.8% (2693 d) | +2.74% | +0.35pp | May 2026, Jan 2026, Apr 2025 | |
| Refinery normal | 0 | 28.3% (2549 d) | +4.87% | +2.48pp | May 2025, Mar 2025, Jan 2025 | |
| Refinery decel TODAY | -1 | 41.9% (3781 d) | +0.45% | -1.95pp | Aug 2026, Mar 2026, Aug 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 44-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
11 state transitions from 01/02/2025 to 11/09/2026. Full history (190 total transitions since 12/03/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d CL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 01/02/2025 | 01/30/2025 | 20d | -4.32% |
| Expansion | 01/31/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 1d | -7.89% |
| Defensive | 02/03/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 19d | -7.23% |
| Neutral | 03/03/2025 | 03/31/2025 | 21d | +0.68% |
| Expansion | 04/01/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 21d | +9.62% |
| Neutral | 05/01/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 63d | +13.75% |
| Defensive | 08/01/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 106d | +10.22% |
| Expansion | 01/02/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 39d | -4.81% |
| Defensive | 03/02/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 43d | +9.34% |
| Expansion | 05/01/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 63d | +1.22% |
| Defensive LIVE | 08/03/2026 | current | 70d | +1.58% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day CL is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Accelerating Gulf Coast refinery throughput signals strengthening US crude demand and transmits bullish to WTI; decelerating throughput signals softening demand and transmits bearish. EIA PADD3 monthly refinery crude net input year-over-year, z-scored on a five-year window and tanh-bounded, captures that regime. Target NYMEX WTI Crude ratio-adjusted continuous close.
Why it matters
Why PADD3 refinery throughput matters for WTI
PADD3 covers Gulf Coast refineries from Texas to Mississippi and represents roughly half of total US crude refining capacity. It is the dominant US demand sink for crude. When Gulf refinery throughput runs above prior year, demand for crude strengthens and transmits bullish to WTI; when below, demand softens. Transmission operates through the physical-demand channel. Petroleum trading desks and oil majors watch the EIA monthly petroleum supply report as a lagging but authoritative measure of US refining utilization alongside weekly refinery-run data in the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
How to use this signal today
Refining-utilization overlay for WTI via PADD3 monthly YoY z-score. Accel firings warn of strengthening US crude demand with the 2008 demand peak and 2022 post-COVID recovery as canonical Phase +1 anchors. Decel firings confirm softening demand with the 2020 COVID shutdown as canonical Phase -1 anchor. Pair with EIA weekly crude stocks (inventory companion), Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, NFCI financial conditions, and term structure for stacked refinery-plus-fundamental conviction.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. First, EIA monthly refinery reports have roughly a two-month publication lag making the signal slow-moving. Second, hurricane-driven Gulf refinery shutdowns can produce temporary decels that are not demand-driven but weather-driven; pair with Gulf hurricane-proximity overlays to disambiguate cause. Third, signal covers PADD3 only; does not capture refining elsewhere in the US (PADD1 East Coast, PADD2 Midwest, PADD4 Rocky Mountain, PADD5 West Coast). Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 10, 2026 03:41 PM ET