CL · Energy / Macro Regime
Z101197 – [CL] Michigan Consumer Sentiment Signal
University of Michigan consumer sentiment z-score captures the US consumer-confidence regime and transmits transport-fuel demand expectations to WTI via the gasoline-pull-through channel.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.288
Signal state
Moderate POS
113 days in Neutral phase
Updated
Nov 09, 2026
UMich monthly release
Sample
44-year window
Daily cadence; 1982 onward
As of Nov 09, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is the longest-running US consumer-confidence survey. Consumer confidence drives discretionary spending including transport (driving miles) which transmits through gasoline demand pull-through to WTI crude demand. The signal takes MICH monthly values z-scored on a five-year rolling window and tanh-bounded. Elevated sentiment historically coincides with stronger gasoline demand and crude pull-through; depressed sentiment coincides with weaker demand. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Sentiment strong) delivers -0.54 pp edge on 26 percent sample; Phase -1 (Sentiment weak) delivers -1.37 pp on 39 percent sample. 0.83 pp spread via the consumer-confidence demand channel.
LIVE CHART
CL Michigan Consumer Sentiment Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index z-scored on a five-year rolling window and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means sentiment running above the five-year average (confident consumer regime); negative means running below (cautious consumer regime). The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX WTI Crude ratio-adjusted continuous. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient.
COMPOSITE
+0.288 / tanh
STATE
Moderate POS
PHASE
+0.30
PHASE +1 EDGE
-0.54 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-1.37 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Michigan sentiment signal firing at composite +0.288, 113 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 (Strong) delivers plus 1.86 percent WTI fwd60d; Phase -1 (Weak) delivers plus 1.03 percent.
THE CONFIDENCE MECHANISM
High consumer confidence drives discretionary spending including driving miles and travel which elevates gasoline demand; refiners pull more crude to produce more gasoline and the crude-demand signal firms. Depressed sentiment reverses the mechanism via driving-miles contraction.
HOW TO POSITION
Macro consumer-confidence overlay for WTI. Strong firings warn of demand pull-through and bullish setup. Weak firings confirm demand softening. Pair with EIA gasoline demand (weekly companion), NFCI financial conditions, and CPI inflation regime for stacked macro-plus-fundamental conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.288 in the current band. Michigan sentiment signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.288 State Moderate POS, 113 days running in current phase.
- UMich Sentiment five-year z-score Raw z-score +0.30; MICH monthly values z-scored on 1260-day rolling window.
- 0.83 pp spread, consumer-confidence demand channel Phase +1 edge -0.54 pp on 26 percent sample; Phase -1 edge -1.37 pp on 39 percent sample via consumer-confidence demand channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE SENTIMENT CALL
Composite +0.288, current state Moderate POS. Michigan sentiment signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Neutral firing for 113 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 (Sentiment strong) edge -0.54 pp on 26 percent sample. Phase 0 (Neutral) edge +1.93 pp on 35 percent sample. Phase -1 (Sentiment weak) edge -1.37 pp on 39 percent sample. 0.83 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Michigan sentiment is a survey-based indicator with monthly cadence and small-sample noise from the survey panel. The transmission to WTI operates through consumer discretionary spending which may lag or lead actual gasoline demand. Sentiment and crude prices can show reflexive feedback (high gasoline prices depress sentiment). Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, WTI forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on WTI forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the consumer-confidence demand channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sentiment strong | +1 | 26.1% (2356 d) | +1.86% | -0.54pp | Apr 2026, Feb 2025, Oct 2023 | |
| Neutral TODAY | 0 | 35.2% (3179 d) | +4.33% | +1.93pp | Jun 2026, Mar 2026, Nov 2025 | |
| Sentiment weak | -1 | 38.7% (3488 d) | +1.03% | -1.37pp | Feb 2026, Jun 2024, Dec 2023 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 44-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
7 state transitions from 01/02/2025 to 11/09/2026. Full history (109 total transitions since 12/03/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d CL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 01/02/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 21d | -4.32% |
| Expansion | 02/03/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 189d | -7.23% |
| Neutral | 11/03/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 61d | +1.26% |
| Defensive | 02/02/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 19d | +2.33% |
| Neutral | 03/02/2026 | 03/31/2026 | 22d | +9.34% |
| Expansion | 04/01/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 41d | +13.09% |
| Neutral LIVE | 06/01/2026 | current | 113d | +0.99% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day CL is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
High US consumer sentiment increases discretionary driving and travel miles which elevates gasoline demand and pulls crude through refineries; low sentiment reverses the mechanism. UMich Consumer Sentiment Index z-scored on a five-year window and tanh-bounded captures that regime. Target NYMEX WTI Crude ratio-adjusted continuous close.
Why it matters
Why Michigan sentiment matters for WTI
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is the longest-running US consumer-confidence survey, published monthly since 1952. It aggregates consumer views on personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. Consumer confidence directly shapes discretionary spending including driving miles, travel, and vehicle purchases; these decisions transmit to crude demand via gasoline pull-through. When sentiment runs above the five-year average, discretionary driving and travel increase; refiners firm up margins, pull more crude, and the crude-demand signal strengthens. When sentiment runs below average, the mechanism reverses. Petroleum trading desks and macro portfolio managers watch the preliminary (mid-month) and final (end-month) UMich releases alongside Conference Board confidence and retail sales data.
How to use this signal today
Macro consumer-confidence overlay for WTI via UMich Sentiment z-score. Strong firings warn of demand pull-through with the 2007 pre-crisis consumer confidence peak as canonical Phase +1 anchor. Weak firings confirm demand softening with the 2008-09 financial-crisis sentiment collapse and 2022 inflation-driven sentiment trough as canonical Phase -1 anchors. Pair with EIA gasoline demand (weekly companion), NFCI financial conditions (macro companion), CPI inflation regime, and term structure (backwardation) for stacked macro-plus-fundamental conviction. Note that supply shocks can override the demand channel as the 2022 counter-case demonstrates.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. First, Michigan sentiment is a survey-based indicator with monthly cadence and small-sample noise from the survey panel; individual month readings can be dominated by panel composition. Second, the transmission to WTI operates through consumer discretionary spending which may lag actual gasoline demand by weeks or months. Third, sentiment and crude prices can show reflexive feedback where high retail gasoline prices depress sentiment even when economic fundamentals support crude demand (2022 is the canonical counter-example). Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 10, 2026 04:40 PM ET