CL · Energy / Product Demand
Z96589 – [CL] Gasoline Demand YoY Signal
EIA gasoline product supplied weekly year-over-year z-score captures the US transport-fuel consumer-demand regime and transmits product-pull signals to WTI via the refinery-margin and crude-demand channel.
At a glance
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Current reading
-0.444
SEASONAL STATE
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Signal state
Moderate NEG
9 days in Stress phase
Updated
Nov 09, 2026
EIA petroleum status
Sample
34-year window
Daily cadence; 1991 onward
As of Nov 09, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW WED 10:30 ET WEEKLY EIA RELEASE
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Gasoline product supplied in the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report is the primary observable measure of US transport-fuel consumer demand. When gasoline demand runs above prior year, refinery margins firm up and refiners pull more crude to produce more gasoline; the crude-demand signal is bullish. When below, margins compress and crude pull softens. The signal takes EIA weekly gasoline product supplied year-over-year z-scored and tanh-bounded. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Demand strong) delivers -1.83 pp edge on 31 percent sample; Phase -1 (Demand weak) delivers +3.41 pp on 34 percent sample. 5.24 pp spread via the refinery-margin crude-demand channel.
LIVE CHART
CL Gasoline Demand YoY Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is EIA weekly gasoline product supplied year-over-year z-scored, tanh-bounded. Positive composite means demand running above prior year (strong consumer pull); negative means demand below prior year (weak pull). The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX WTI Crude ratio-adjusted continuous. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient.
COMPOSITE
-0.444 / tanh
STATE
Moderate NEG
PHASE
-0.46
PHASE +1 EDGE
-1.83 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+3.41 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Gasoline demand signal firing at composite -0.444, 9 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 (Strong) delivers plus 0.70 percent WTI fwd60d; Phase -1 (Weak) delivers plus 5.94 percent.
THE DEMAND MECHANISM
US gasoline consumer demand drives refinery margins. Strong demand firms margins; refiners pull more crude to produce more gasoline and crude-demand firms. Weak demand compresses margins and softens crude pull.
HOW TO POSITION
Consumer demand overlay for WTI. Strong firings warn of refinery pull and bullish setup. Weak firings confirm softening demand. Pair with PADD3 refinery input, EIA weekly crude stocks, and term structure for stacked demand-plus-fundamental conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.444 in the current band. Gasoline demand signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.444 State Moderate NEG, 9 days running in current phase.
- EIA gasoline product supplied YoY z-score Raw z-score -0.46; weekly gasoline flow year-over-year z-scored.
- 5.24 pp spread, refinery-margin channel Phase +1 edge -1.83 pp on 31 percent sample; Phase -1 edge +3.41 pp on 34 percent sample via refinery-margin crude-demand channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE DEMAND CALL
Composite -0.444, current state Moderate NEG. Gasoline demand signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Stress firing for 9 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 (Demand strong) edge -1.83 pp on 31 percent sample. Phase 0 (Normal) edge -1.70 pp on 35 percent sample. Phase -1 (Demand weak) edge +3.41 pp on 34 percent sample. 5.24 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
EIA weekly data has a five-day publication lag and revisions. Gasoline product-supplied is a product-flow estimate not a direct consumer survey; it reflects wholesale rack pulls which can lead or lag actual consumer purchases. Electric-vehicle adoption and vehicle efficiency gains have structurally reduced the US gasoline demand floor over time. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, WTI forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on WTI forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the refinery-margin crude-demand channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand strong | +1 | 31.0% (2643 d) | +0.70% | -1.83pp | Jul 2026, Jul 2026, Jul 2026 | |
| Demand normal | 0 | 35.0% (2987 d) | +0.83% | -1.70pp | Sep 2026, Jul 2026, Jul 2026 | |
| Demand weak TODAY | -1 | 34.0% (2898 d) | +5.94% | +3.41pp | Oct 2026, Dec 2025, Oct 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 34-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
27 state transitions from 11/14/2024 to 11/09/2026. Full history (294 total transitions since 12/01/1989) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d CL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | 11/14/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 1d | +1.69% |
| Neutral | 11/15/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 18d | +4.09% |
| Defensive | 12/12/2024 | 12/17/2024 | 4d | -7.52% |
| Neutral | 12/18/2024 | 01/06/2025 | 12d | -4.31% |
| Defensive | 01/07/2025 | 03/13/2025 | 46d | -8.82% |
| Neutral | 03/14/2025 | 04/14/2025 | 22d | +7.16% |
| Defensive | 04/15/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 6d | +16.22% |
| Neutral | 04/24/2025 | 06/23/2025 | 41d | +15.03% |
| Expansion | 06/24/2025 | 06/24/2025 | 1d | +9.29% |
| Neutral | 06/25/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 24d | +9.32% |
| Expansion | 07/30/2025 | 09/09/2025 | 29d | +5.88% |
| Neutral | 09/10/2025 | 10/01/2025 | 16d | +4.93% |
| Defensive | 10/02/2025 | 10/02/2025 | 1d | +2.78% |
| Neutral | 10/03/2025 | 12/02/2025 | 42d | +2.66% |
| Defensive | 12/03/2025 | 03/18/2026 | 72d | -0.52% |
| Neutral | 03/19/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 29d | +14.40% |
| Expansion | 04/30/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 7d | +3.09% |
| Neutral | 05/11/2026 | 06/16/2026 | 26d | +3.96% |
| Expansion | 06/17/2026 | 06/24/2026 | 5d | +2.69% |
| Neutral | 06/25/2026 | 07/06/2026 | 7d | +5.34% |
| Expansion | 07/07/2026 | 07/08/2026 | 2d | +2.00% |
| Neutral | 07/09/2026 | 07/10/2026 | 2d | +2.39% |
| Expansion | 07/13/2026 | 07/14/2026 | 2d | +3.99% |
| Neutral | 07/15/2026 | 07/20/2026 | 4d | +2.53% |
| Expansion | 07/21/2026 | 09/14/2026 | 39d | +2.85% |
| Neutral | 09/15/2026 | 10/27/2026 | 31d | ongoing |
| Defensive LIVE | 10/28/2026 | current | 9d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day CL is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Strong US gasoline consumer demand firms refinery margins and increases refiner crude pull which transmits bullish to WTI; weak demand compresses margins and softens crude pull. EIA gasoline product supplied weekly year-over-year z-scored and tanh-bounded captures that regime. Target NYMEX WTI Crude ratio-adjusted continuous close.
Why it matters
Why US gasoline demand matters for WTI
Gasoline is the largest petroleum product by US consumption volume and the primary US transport-fuel product. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tracks gasoline product supplied as a weekly flow estimate representing wholesale rack pulls from US refineries plus imports minus exports. When demand runs above prior year, refinery margins firm up as refiners can clear gasoline inventory at better prices; they pull more crude to produce more gasoline and the crude-demand signal firms. Petroleum trading desks, refiners, and macro portfolio managers watch the Wednesday 10:30 ET release as a top-of-book transport-fuel consumer-demand gauge alongside distillate demand and jet fuel demand.
How to use this signal today
Consumer transport-fuel demand overlay for WTI via EIA weekly gasoline product supplied YoY z-score. Strong firings warn of refinery pull and bullish setup with the 2008 pre-crisis demand peak as canonical Phase +1 anchor. Weak firings confirm demand collapse with the 2020 COVID demand collapse as canonical Phase -1 anchor. Pair with PADD3 refinery input (demand companion), EIA weekly crude stocks (inventory companion), strategic-reserve flow, and term structure (backwardation, timespreads) for stacked demand-plus-fundamental conviction.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. First, EIA weekly reports have a five-day publication lag and occasional revisions that can retroactively change the signal. Second, gasoline product-supplied is a product-flow estimate not a direct consumer survey; it reflects wholesale rack pulls which can lead or lag actual consumer purchases by a week or more. Third, electric-vehicle adoption and vehicle efficiency gains have structurally reduced the US gasoline demand floor over time; the historical edge may be partially non-repeatable as these trends extend. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 10, 2026 04:32 PM ET