CL · Energy / Product Price
Z3612 – [CL] Retail Gasoline YoY Signal
EIA US national retail gasoline price year-over-year z-score captures the consumer-pump-price regime and transmits a downstream confirmation signal to WTI via the retail-pass-through channel.
At a glance
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Current reading
+0.926
SEASONAL STATE
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Signal state
Extreme POS
176 days in Healthy phase
Updated
Nov 09, 2026
EIA weekly retail gasoline
Sample
34-year window
Daily cadence; 1992 onward
As of Nov 09, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW MON WEEKLY EIA RETAIL GASOLINE RELEASE
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline Price survey tracks US national average pump prices for regular gasoline. Retail gasoline prices lag crude prices through the refining and distribution chain with a typical pass-through delay of 4 to 6 weeks. When retail prices run above prior year, the downstream co-move confirms underlying crude strength; when below, it confirms weakness. The signal takes EIA retail gasoline weekly YoY z-scored on a two-year window and tanh-bounded. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Price rising) delivers -0.79 pp edge on 42 percent sample; Phase -1 (Price falling) delivers +0.66 pp on 44 percent sample. 1.45 pp spread via the retail pass-through channel.
LIVE CHART
CL Retail Gasoline YoY Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is EIA US national retail gasoline weekly price year-over-year z-scored on a two-year rolling window, tanh-bounded. Positive composite means retail gasoline running above prior year (confirmed crude strength regime); negative means below prior year (confirmed weakness regime). The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX WTI Crude ratio-adjusted continuous. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient.
COMPOSITE
+0.926 / tanh
STATE
Extreme POS
PHASE
+1.62
PHASE +1 EDGE
-0.79 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+0.66 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Retail gasoline signal firing at composite +0.926, 176 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 (Rising) delivers plus 1.65 percent WTI fwd60d; Phase -1 (Falling) delivers plus 3.10 percent.
THE PASS-THROUGH MECHANISM
Retail gasoline prices lag crude through refining margins and distribution with roughly four to six weeks pass-through delay. Rising retail YoY confirms underlying crude strength has completed the pass-through cycle; falling retail YoY confirms the reverse. Signal operates as downstream confirmation not upstream prediction.
HOW TO POSITION
Retail pass-through overlay for WTI. Rising firings confirm bullish regime completion and sustain conviction. Falling firings confirm bearish regime completion. Pair with EIA gasoline demand (upstream consumer companion), EIA weekly crude stocks (inventory companion), and term structure for stacked downstream-plus-fundamental conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.926 in the current band. Retail gasoline signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.926 State Extreme POS, 176 days running in current phase.
- EIA retail gasoline YoY z-score Raw z-score +1.62; weekly retail YoY z-scored on two-year rolling window.
- 1.45 pp spread, retail pass-through channel Phase +1 edge -0.79 pp on 42 percent sample; Phase -1 edge +0.66 pp on 44 percent sample via retail pass-through channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE PUMP CALL
Composite +0.926, current state Extreme POS. Retail gasoline signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Healthy firing for 176 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 (Price rising) edge -0.79 pp on 42 percent sample. Phase 0 (Normal) edge +0.27 pp on 14 percent sample. Phase -1 (Price falling) edge +0.66 pp on 44 percent sample. 1.45 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Retail gasoline is downstream of crude so the signal operates as confirmation rather than prediction. Pass-through delays of 4 to 6 weeks mean the signal cannot flag an imminent turning point. Refining margins, taxes, and distribution costs introduce noise that decouples retail YoY from crude YoY in short horizons. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, WTI forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on WTI forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the retail pass-through channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price rising TODAY | +1 | 41.9% (3816 d) | +1.65% | -0.79pp | Mar 2026, Sep 2025, Dec 2024 | |
| Normal | 0 | 14.2% (1292 d) | +2.71% | +0.27pp | Feb 2026, Dec 2025, Aug 2025 | |
| Price falling | -1 | 44.0% (4008 d) | +3.10% | +0.66pp | Jan 2026, Jul 2025, Apr 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 34-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
17 state transitions from 11/11/2024 to 11/09/2026. Full history (200 total transitions since 12/30/1981) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d CL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive | 11/11/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 2d | +1.02% |
| Neutral | 11/13/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 19d | +1.03% |
| Expansion | 12/11/2024 | 03/05/2025 | 56d | -8.00% |
| Neutral | 03/06/2025 | 03/19/2025 | 10d | +3.49% |
| Defensive | 03/20/2025 | 03/21/2025 | 2d | +6.58% |
| Neutral | 03/24/2025 | 03/26/2025 | 3d | +4.07% |
| Defensive | 03/27/2025 | 04/04/2025 | 7d | +7.00% |
| Neutral | 04/07/2025 | 04/11/2025 | 5d | +23.98% |
| Defensive | 04/14/2025 | 06/11/2025 | 41d | +15.67% |
| Neutral | 06/12/2025 | 07/02/2025 | 14d | +7.42% |
| Defensive | 07/03/2025 | 08/20/2025 | 34d | +6.13% |
| Neutral | 08/21/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 7d | +5.72% |
| Expansion | 09/02/2025 | 12/19/2025 | 78d | +5.43% |
| Neutral | 12/22/2025 | 01/07/2026 | 11d | -5.29% |
| Defensive | 01/08/2026 | 01/30/2026 | 16d | -4.39% |
| Neutral | 02/02/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 19d | +2.33% |
| Expansion LIVE | 03/02/2026 | current | 176d | +9.34% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day CL is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Rising retail gasoline prices downstream of rising crude confirm underlying crude strength through the refining and distribution chain; falling retail prices confirm underlying weakness. EIA US national retail gasoline weekly price year-over-year z-scored on a two-year window and tanh-bounded captures that regime. Target NYMEX WTI Crude ratio-adjusted continuous close.
Why it matters
Why retail gasoline YoY matters for WTI
The EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline Price survey tracks US national average pump prices for regular gasoline across approximately 900 retail outlets, published every Monday. Retail gasoline prices are downstream of crude through the refining and distribution chain with a typical pass-through delay of 4 to 6 weeks. Rising retail YoY confirms that underlying crude strength has completed the downstream pass-through cycle; falling retail YoY confirms the reverse. Petroleum trading desks and macro portfolio managers use retail gasoline YoY alongside crack spreads and refinery margins as downstream confirmation signals that the upstream crude move has sustained through to the consumer price point.
How to use this signal today
Retail pass-through confirmation overlay for WTI via EIA retail gasoline YoY. Rising firings confirm bullish regime completion with the 2008 supercycle pump-price peak and 2022 Russia-invasion pump-price spike as canonical Phase +1 anchors. Falling firings confirm bearish regime completion with the 2009 post-crisis pump-price collapse as canonical Phase -1 anchor. Pair with EIA gasoline demand (upstream consumer-pull companion), EIA weekly crude stocks (inventory companion), PADD3 refinery input (processing companion), and term structure (backwardation) for stacked downstream-plus-fundamental conviction. Signal is a confirmation gauge; combine with upstream signals for timing.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. First, retail gasoline is downstream of crude so the signal operates as confirmation rather than prediction; it cannot flag an imminent turning point with pass-through delays of 4 to 6 weeks. Second, refining margins, state and federal taxes, and distribution costs introduce noise that can decouple retail YoY from crude YoY in short horizons. Third, electric-vehicle adoption and vehicle efficiency gains are slowly reducing the retail-gasoline-to-crude pass-through elasticity over time; forward pass-through magnitudes may differ from historical magnitudes. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 10, 2026 03:36 PM ET