RB · Energy / Regional Premium
Z3791 – [RB] California Retail Premium Signal
California PADD5 retail regular gasoline price minus US national average captures the West Coast regional tightness regime and transmits a bullish national crack-spread signal to RBOB gasoline via the regional-premium channel.
At a glance
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Current reading
+0.328
SEASONAL STATE
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Signal state
Moderate POS
1 days in Neutral phase
Updated
Nov 09, 2026
EIA weekly retail
Sample
30-year window
Daily cadence; 1996 onward
As of Nov 09, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW MON WEEKLY EIA RETAIL GASOLINE RELEASE
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The California retail gasoline market is structurally the most expensive in the United States due to CARB specification requirements, in-state refining capacity constraints, and heavy state taxation. When California retail gasoline price runs above the US national average by a widening margin, the signal detects West Coast regional tightness; refinery margins widen on CARB-spec product and bullish national crack-spread pressure transmits to RBOB gasoline futures. The signal takes CA retail minus US national average, z-scored and tanh-bounded. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (CA premium wide) delivers -0.96 pp edge on 44 percent sample; Phase -1 (CA premium narrow) delivers +0.22 pp on 36 percent sample. 1.18 pp spread via the regional-premium channel.
LIVE CHART
RB California Retail Premium Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is California PADD5 retail regular gasoline price minus US national average, z-scored and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means CA premium running wide (West Coast tightness); negative means premium running narrow (regional loosening). The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX RBOB Gasoline front-month continuous. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient.
COMPOSITE
+0.328 / tanh
STATE
Moderate POS
PHASE
+0.06
PHASE +1 EDGE
-0.96 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+0.22 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
CA premium signal firing at composite +0.328, 1 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 delivers plus 2.19 percent RBOB fwd60d; Phase -1 delivers plus 3.37 percent.
THE PREMIUM MECHANISM
California gasoline is CARB-spec and structurally expensive. Widening CA-minus-national premium signals West Coast regional tightness; refinery margins on CARB product expand and bullish national crack-spread pressure transmits to RBOB gasoline.
HOW TO POSITION
Regional-premium overlay for RBOB. Wide firings warn of West Coast tightness and bullish setup. Narrow firings confirm regional loosening. Pair with gasoline demand YoY, PADD3 refinery input, and crack-spread signals for stacked conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.328 in the current band. CA premium signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.328 State Moderate POS, 1 days running in current phase.
- CA retail minus US national z-score Raw z-score +0.06; weekly price difference z-scored.
- 1.18 pp spread, regional-premium channel Phase +1 edge -0.96 pp on 44 percent sample; Phase -1 edge +0.22 pp on 36 percent sample via regional-premium channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE PREMIUM CALL
Composite +0.328, current state Moderate POS. CA premium signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Neutral firing for 1 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 (Wide) edge -0.96 pp on 44 percent sample. Phase 0 (Normal) edge +1.64 pp on 21 percent sample. Phase -1 (Narrow) edge +0.22 pp on 36 percent sample. 1.18 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
California retail gasoline reflects state-specific tax policy and CARB-spec premium separate from national crack dynamics. Signal operates as a regional-tightness proxy; readers should separate structural CA premium (always elevated vs national) from cyclical widening. EIA weekly data has a five-day publication lag. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, RBOB forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on RBOB forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the regional-premium channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA premium wide | +1 | 43.5% (3731 d) | +2.19% | -0.96pp | Aug 2026, Feb 2026, Aug 2025 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 20.7% (1771 d) | +4.79% | +1.64pp | Nov 2026, Aug 2026, Jul 2026 | |
| CA premium narrow | -1 | 35.8% (3071 d) | +3.37% | +0.22pp | Jul 2026, Jan 2026, Sep 2024 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 30-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
14 state transitions from 02/10/2025 to 11/09/2026. Full history (325 total transitions since 12/03/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d RB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 02/10/2025 | 02/14/2025 | 5d | -7.22% |
| Expansion | 02/18/2025 | 03/21/2025 | 24d | -3.91% |
| Neutral | 03/24/2025 | 03/28/2025 | 5d | +4.07% |
| Expansion | 03/31/2025 | 07/11/2025 | 71d | +9.38% |
| Neutral | 07/14/2025 | 08/22/2025 | 30d | +7.09% |
| Expansion | 08/25/2025 | 12/12/2025 | 78d | +2.74% |
| Neutral | 12/15/2025 | 01/02/2026 | 13d | -2.71% |
| Defensive | 01/05/2026 | 01/30/2026 | 19d | -4.72% |
| Neutral | 02/02/2026 | 02/06/2026 | 5d | +2.33% |
| Expansion | 02/09/2026 | 06/30/2026 | 98d | +5.75% |
| Neutral | 07/01/2026 | 07/10/2026 | 7d | +3.43% |
| Defensive | 07/13/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 15d | +3.99% |
| Neutral | 08/03/2026 | 08/28/2026 | 20d | +1.58% |
| Expansion LIVE | 08/31/2026 | current | 50d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day RB is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Widening California-minus-national retail gasoline premium reflects West Coast regional tightness and transmits bullish crack-spread pressure to RBOB gasoline futures via refinery-margin expansion; narrowing premium reflects regional loosening. EIA weekly CA retail minus US national average z-scored and tanh-bounded captures that regime. Target NYMEX RBOB Gasoline front-month continuous.
Why it matters
Why CA retail premium matters for RBOB gasoline
California is the largest US state gasoline market consuming approximately 30 million gallons per day. California gasoline is CARB-specification (California Air Resources Board) which requires reformulated fuel distinct from the broader US gasoline supply; CARB product cannot easily arbitrage from other regions. Structural factors include tight in-state refining capacity, heavy state excise taxes, cap-and-trade compliance costs, and limited pipeline interconnection. When CA retail premium runs wide relative to the national average, West Coast regional tightness has intensified; refinery margins on CARB product expand, bullish national crack-spread pressure transmits to RBOB futures, and the broader gasoline complex firms. Petroleum trading desks watch EIA weekly retail gasoline (national and PADD5) as a top-of-book regional-premium gauge.
How to use this signal today
Regional-premium overlay for RBOB gasoline via California retail minus national average. Wide firings warn of West Coast regional tightness with the 2015 Torrance refinery outage and 2022 global crude spike as canonical Phase +1 anchors. Narrow firings confirm regional loosening with the 2020 COVID demand collapse as canonical Phase -1 anchor. Pair with EIA gasoline demand YoY (companion), PADD3 refinery input, CL crude signals for upstream feedthrough, and crack-spread signals for stacked regional-plus-national conviction.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. First, California retail gasoline reflects state-specific tax policy and CARB-spec premium which is structurally elevated (approximately 60 to 80 cents per gallon above national); signal measures cyclical widening against this structural baseline. Second, EIA weekly data has a five-day publication lag with occasional revisions. Third, California refinery outages (Torrance 2015, Phillips 66 2024) can create signal spikes that reflect single-facility events rather than broader West Coast regime; pair with refinery-capacity monitoring. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 10, 2026 03:41 PM ET