Softs

The quarterly-released cocoa grindings composite that reads processor demand on cocoa, built from the ECA (European Cocoa Association), NCA (National Confectioners Association, US), and CAA (Cocoa Association of Asia) regional reports. Thirty-six years of history, three-state machine. The historically contrarian pattern: Demand Weakness states have preceded above-baseline cocoa forward returns by 2.24 percentage points, a counterintuitive pattern the 2022-2024 supercycle made famous.

CHIRPS precipitation over Pakistan Punjab captures moisture stress on Pakistani cotton production and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the fifth-largest-producer supply channel.

Production-weighted drought severity across the US cotton belt captures growing-season moisture stress and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the supply-shock channel.

CFTC non-commercial net speculator positioning in Cotton futures captures speculator conviction and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the sustained-flow channel.

NASA GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage over India Vidarbha captures groundwater stress on the rain-fed cotton belt and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the yield-shock channel.

NASS weekly US cotton squaring pace year-over-year captures phenology timing stress on the US crop and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the growing-cycle channel.

Monsoon moisture over Vidarbha, the largest Indian cotton-growing belt, determines rainfed yield and transmits deficit regimes to Cotton futures at 60-day horizons.

Baltic Exchange Panamax plus Supramax dry-bulk freight rates captures global shipping demand and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the commodity-complex demand channel.

US apparel retail inventory-to-sales ratio captures end-user demand slack for cotton-fiber products and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the downstream-demand channel.

La Nina ENSO regimes drive compound supply stress across US Texas and Indian monsoon cotton belts and transmit bullish regimes to Cotton futures at 60-day horizons via multi- regional yield compression.

CHIRPS 30-day precipitation over Xinjiang captures moisture stress on 80 percent of Chinese cotton production and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the global-supply channel.

NASA GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage over India Gujarat captures groundwater stress on the irrigation-dependent cotton belt and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the yield-shock channel.

USDA PSD US cotton production year-over-year captures systemic US supply shifts and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the top-exporter supply channel.

Peak-summer heat over Xinjiang, the Chinese cotton region producing roughly 85 percent of domestic supply, damages flowering and boll development and transmits stress to Cotton futures at 60-day horizons.

CFTC non-commercial speculator net positioning z-score captures crowding regimes and transmits mean-reversion at extremes to Cotton futures at 60-day horizons via the positioning channel.

IMF global cotton price benchmark YoY combined with US drought and Indian monsoon supply overlays transmits momentum regimes to Cotton futures at 60-day horizons via the global- price-plus-supply-stress channel.

Delayed boll setting across the US cotton crop signals phenology stress during the critical yield-determination window and transmits to Cotton futures at 60-day horizons via the growing-cycle channel.

Cotton ginner-throughput stress captures processing-capacity bottlenecks in the US cotton gin network; signal affects both cotton futures and cottonseed-oil availability as a BO substitute.

Cotton old-crop to new-crop carry (Dec-July back-month spread) prices physical supply tightness and transmits backwardation regimes to Cotton futures at 60-day horizons via the carry channel.

Brazil Arabica realized export price year-over-year, as a transaction-derived gauge of physical tightness.

NOAA Oceanic Niño Index weighted by Brazil Arabica dry-season and flowering windows, as a long-lead ENSO-driven supply signal for Arabica.

Brazil Cerrado and Sul-Minas water deficit (PET minus AET from TERRACLIMATE), as a true-water-stress drought lens for Arabica.

BLS Import Price Index for the Green Coffee plus Cocoa plus Sugar basket year-over-year, as a cross-soft macro lens for Arabica supply cycles.

Realized 60-day volatility of ICE US Coffee C, as a volatility-regime lens for Arabica.

CHIRPS satellite precipitation over the Brazil Cerrado coffee belt, inverted as a drought lens for Arabica supply.

CONAB Minas Gerais arabica production forecast year-over-year, inverted as a state-level tightness lens for Arabica.

BLS Import Price Index deviation from long trend as a cost-push versus cost-deflation regime signal for Arabica.

IMF Primary Commodity Prices Other Mild Arabica benchmark deviation from trend, as a global arabica reference-price lens for ICE Coffee C.

60-day density of days where Arabica and Robusta both move more than 1.5 sigma in the same direction, as a coupled-tail regime lens for Arabica.

Product of ICE Europe Robusta managed-money net 3-year z and CFTC Arabica managed-money net 3-year z when same-sign, as a coupled cross-coffee positioning lens.

Commercial dealer positioning in Arabica futures drives the price regime via physical-hedge demand; the DCOT dealer z-score captures this flow.

Brazilian Arabica production forecast year-over-year captures supply-regime shifts that drive Arabica forward 60-day returns via the systemic supply channel.

Central American coffee-belt wet-weather anomalies elevate roya leaf-rust risk and historically precede Arabica supply shocks that drive forward 60-day returns.

Global soluble coffee export growth interacted with weather and global price context captures Arabica demand regime and drives forward 60-day returns via the demand-plus-context channel.

the US CPI year-over-year z-score as a US inflation regime lens on Arabica forward 60-day returns.

NINO3 minus NINO4 SST anomaly z-score as an ENSO geographic structure lens on Arabica forward 60-day returns.

Cleveland Fed Median CPI inverted year-over-year captures entrenched-inflation regime shifts that drive Fed tightening cycles and Arabica forward 60-day returns.

US ready-to-drink and extracts import growth outpacing green coffee import growth signals a structural share gain for Robusta blends and drives Arabica forward 60-day returns via the structural substitution channel.

Global composite coffee price year-over-year change leads Arabica forward 60-day returns via the global price benchmark channel; the ICO ICIP YoY z-score captures the regime.

6-month rolling Arabica-Robusta spread z-score as a cross-coffee relative-value lens on Arabica forward 60-day returns.

Brazilian coffee-region fire activity captures combined crop-loss and pollination-stress supply shocks that drive Arabica forward 60-day returns via the fire-pressure channel.

Brazilian farmer fertilizer costs in local currency capture input-price pressure on coffee producers and transmit to Arabica forward 60-day returns via the production-cost channel.

Offshore sea-surface temperature anomalies near the Brazilian coffee coast drive moisture advection to inland coffee regions and lead Arabica forward 60-day returns via the ocean-climate channel.

Baltic Dry Index year-over-year captures global dry-bulk shipping demand and transmits the global-growth cycle to Arabica forward 60-day returns via the commodity-complex demand channel.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index year-over-year z-score captures credit-cycle regime shifts that drive Arabica forward 60-day returns via the risk-capital channel.

10-year TIPS real yield captures the real cost of capital and transmits to Arabica forward 60-day returns via the commodity-complex discount-rate channel.

NASA FIRMS satellite fire intensity over the Brazil Sul de Minas coffee belt, as a real-time crop-destruction supply-shock lens for Arabica.

How crowded speculative money is in coffee, measured as a 5-year z-score of the net long position, moves as a soft-commodity risk-on tell that bleeds into cattle positioning on the same risk-cycle time scale.

A GRACE-satellite-derived deep-aquifer stress signal over Ethiopia’s coffee belt, read as a diffuse macro-coincidence indicator for US fed cattle.

The disaggregated managed-money cut on coffee positioning, available since 2006, is a cleaner read on how fast money is leaning into the softs complex than the legacy aggregated breakdown.

A GRACE-satellite-derived aquifer-stress signal over Guatemala’s volcanic coffee belt, read as a Mesoamerican Dry Corridor macro backdrop for US fed cattle.

US monthly green coffee imports from Vietnam year-over-year as a demand-pull lens on Robusta forward 60-day returns.

ICE Europe managed-money net positioning in Robusta coffee futures captures speculator conviction and leads Robusta forward 60-day returns via the direct-positioning channel.

Vietnam Robusta root-zone soil moisture during flowering and berry-development, when yield is determined.

European white sugar refinery demand pulls raw cane through the refining chain; crowded managed-money positioning in ICE Europe white sugar transmits refined-demand pressure to Sugar No. 11 futures at 60-day horizons via the refiner feedstock channel.

Crowded Sugar speculator positioning marks sentiment peaks and troughs that drive contrarian mean-reversion to Sugar No. 11 futures at 60-day horizons via the positioning channel; CFTC CoT captures the crowding.

Monsoon moisture over Brazil Center-South cane belt determines cane yield and transmits precipitation regimes to Sugar No. 11 futures at 60-day horizons via the primary global supply channel.

Sugar front-month-to-third-nearby carry spread prices physical supply tightness and transmits backwardation regimes to Sugar No. 11 futures at 60-day horizons via the carry channel.

The year-over-year change in Brazilian centrifugal sugar exports, z-scored and polarity-inverted. Brazil’s cane-based sugar-versus-ethanol production split is the single largest global cross-commodity link between the sugar and corn markets; this signal captures where that split currently sits versus its multi-decade trend.