Livestock

BLS retail ground beef price year-over-year as a Grade B+ consumer-demand directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 18 of 26 major market crashes (69%), with an average early warning of 158 trading days (32 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article A. · tested 2026-09-30

BLS Producer Price Index for processed foods year-over-year as a Grade B+ directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 18 of 26 major market crashes (69%), with an average early warning of 196 trading days (39 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article A. · tested 2026-09-30

USDA NASS Cattle on Feed light-weight placements (under 700 lbs) monthly, z-scored on 5 years, Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 14 of 24 major market crashes (58%), with an average early warning of 30 trading days (6 weeks). archetype Cross Asset Leading. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article A. · tested 2026-09-30

WOAH New World screwworm hemispheric event-count detector (crisis-receding leg) as a Grade B directional signal with marginal independent-sample significance on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 9 of 21 major market crashes (43%), with an average early warning of 60 trading days (12 weeks). archetype Cross Asset Leading. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article B. · tested 2026-09-30

CME Feeder Cattle full term curve composite (L2/L3/L6 vs L1 average), z-scored on two years, Grade A directional signal on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 22 of 26 major market crashes (85%), with an average early warning of 62 trading days (12 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Macro Monetary. TruthSayer C+ / article A. · tested 2026-09-30

Statistics Canada table 32-10-0130 Canadian total cattle semi-annual year-over-year shifted 90 days forward as a Grade B directional signal with marginal independent-sample significance on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 5 of 26 major market crashes (19%), with an average early warning of 128 trading days (26 weeks). archetype Cross Asset Leading. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer C+ / article B-. · tested 2026-09-30

Daily temperature-humidity index for Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas Panhandle feedlot zones, 60-day rolling mean z-scored on 5 years, Grade A directional heat-stress signal on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 26 of 26 major market crashes (100%), with an average early warning of 64 trading days (13 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer C+ / article B+. · tested 2026-09-30

CME Live Cattle year-over-year z-scored on 5 years, reads LC momentum as the substitution signal for Feeder Cattle through the finished-cattle feedlot linkage.

BacktestThe signal detected 15 of 26 major market crashes (58%), with an average early warning of 124 trading days (25 weeks). archetype Cross Asset Leading. regime cluster Macro Monetary. TruthSayer C+ / article A. · tested 2026-09-30

Corn-to-feeder-cattle price ratio extreme-regime detector z-scored on two years as a Grade B+ directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 6 of 19 major market crashes (32%), with an average early warning of 55 trading days (11 weeks). archetype Cross Asset Leading. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer C / article B. · tested 2026-09-30

Log LC/FC ratio z-scored on 252 days then lagged 60 days, Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 24 of 27 major market crashes (89%), with an average early warning of 40 trading days (8 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer C / article A. · tested 2026-09-30

CME LC/FC ratio z-scored on one year as a Grade B+ directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 19 of 26 major market crashes (73%), with an average early warning of 71 trading days (14 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer C / article A-. · tested 2026-09-30

Cattle crush margin (CCM = 12.5 LC – 7.5 FC – 50 Corn) z-scored on 2 years as a Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 20 of 26 major market crashes (77%), with an average early warning of 248 trading days (50 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer C- / article A. · tested 2026-09-30

USDA AMS Choice minus Select cutout spread z-scored on 60 days as a Grade B+ consumer-premium-demand signal with strong independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 16 of 16 major market crashes (100%), with an average early warning of 6 trading days (1 weeks). archetype Regime Specialist. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer D / article C-. · tested 2026-09-28

USDM county Drought Severity and Coverage Index for Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska z-scored on 5 years as a Grade B directional signal with marginal independent-sample significance on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestTruthSayer C+. · tested 2026-09-27

NASS all-weight cattle placements year-over-year z-scored on 36 months as a Grade B+ directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BacktestTruthSayer C+. · tested 2026-09-27

Montana plus Wyoming plus Idaho SNOTEL snow-water equivalent z-scored on 5 years and inverted, Grade A directional water-supply signal with the strongest IC in the FC library tied to US Herd Inventory.

BacktestTruthSayer B-. · tested 2026-09-27

Texas Panhandle plus Oklahoma plus Kansas calf-source belt polar-vortex event detector, Grade A directional signal with the second-strongest IC in the FC library on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

Backtestarchetype Regime Specialist. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer F / article D. · tested 2026-09-28

USDA NASS semiannual total cattle and calves inventory, z-scored on two years, the strongest-IC structural signal on CME Feeder Cattle.

BacktestTruthSayer B-. · tested 2026-09-27

CME Feeder Cattle minus Live Cattle spread z-scored on 5 years as a Grade B directional signal on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns (marginal independent-sample significance).

BacktestThe signal detected 20 of 26 major market crashes (77%), with an average early warning of 178 trading days (36 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer C / article A. · tested 2026-09-26

The net position of US pork packers and processors in CME lean hog futures, z-scored over five years, as the single strongest signal in the lean hog composite.

BacktestTruthSayer B+. · tested 2026-10-31

USDA NASS quarterly national breeding-herd inventory year-over-year, inverted and z-scored, as a ten-month-forward supply anchor on Lean Hogs futures.

BacktestTruthSayer B+. · tested 2026-10-31

USDA AMS five-day-smoothed pork carcass cutout year-over-year, z-scored and tanh-bounded, as a slow-confirming demand-regime read on Lean Hogs forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 14 of 14 major market crashes (100%), with an average early warning of 62 trading days (12 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Crisis. TruthSayer B+ / article A-. · tested 2026-10-31

Monthly US retail pork price change, year-over-year, inverted and tanh-bounded, read against CME Lean Hogs forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 15 of 25 major market crashes (60%), with an average early warning of 228 trading days (46 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Crisis. TruthSayer B+ / article A-. · tested 2026-10-31

Removed from the LH Supply Census Composite 2026-10-30 after tradable-benchmark re-measurement showed no reliable 60-day forward edge (IC +0.009, p=0.37). A seasonal read on North Carolina heat-humidity stress in the US hog belt; retained as an informational research signal only.

BacktestThe signal detected 22 of 25 major market crashes (88%), with an average early warning of 74 trading days (15 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B+ / article A+. · tested 2026-10-31

Heat stress accumulation in the US hog belt, read as a daily signal for how much US pork production the next 60 days will deliver versus trend.

BacktestThe signal detected 21 of 25 major market crashes (84%), with an average early warning of 59 trading days (12 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer B+ / article A+. · tested 2026-10-31

USDA NASS national market-hog inventory year-over-year, inverted and z-scored, as a near-term supply tightness read against CME Lean Hogs forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 10 of 19 major market crashes (53%), with an average early warning of 184 trading days (37 weeks). archetype Cross Asset Leading. regime cluster Crisis. TruthSayer B+ / article A-. · tested 2026-10-31

CFTC managed-money positioning decile-rank crowded extremes on CME Lean Hogs, the regime-specialist read designed to catch short-squeeze setups and crowded-long liquidation turns.

BacktestThe signal detected 11 of 21 major market crashes (52%), with an average early warning of 98 trading days (20 weeks). archetype Cross Asset Leading. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B+ / article A. · tested 2026-10-31

A 4-year sinusoid fitted to detrended lean hog log-prices, read as the current cycle-phase position against CME Lean Hogs forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 17 of 25 major market crashes (68%), with an average early warning of 214 trading days (43 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article A+. · tested 2026-10-31

US Drought Monitor D2+ coverage across Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois, the hog-belt feed-cost and production-stress proxy for CME Lean Hogs forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 12 of 23 major market crashes (52%), with an average early warning of 66 trading days (13 weeks). archetype Cross Asset Leading. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article A. · tested 2026-10-31

Iowa State University monthly estimated returns to farrow-to-finish hog producers, inverted and z-scored, as a liquidation-pressure precursor to Lean Hogs forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 11 of 13 major market crashes (85%), with an average early warning of 70 trading days (14 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Macro Inflation. TruthSayer B / article B+. · tested 2026-10-31

April pork cold-storage z-score, negated and gated to the May-August grilling season, the seasonal inflection sentiment anchor for CME Lean Hogs summer rallies.

BacktestThe signal detected 7 of 25 major market crashes (28%), with an average early warning of 53 trading days (11 weeks). archetype Cross Asset Leading. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article A-. · tested 2026-10-31

Rolling 60-day density of extreme co-move days between CME Lean Hogs and Live Cattle, z-scored on five years, the cross-protein tail-coupling read.

BacktestThe signal detected 20 of 25 major market crashes (80%), with an average early warning of 67 trading days (13 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article A. · tested 2026-10-31

FAO Meat Price Sub-Index year-over-year, z-scored on five years and sign-flipped, the global cross-meat inflation context overlay for CME Lean Hogs forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 13 of 24 major market crashes (54%), with an average early warning of 189 trading days (38 weeks). archetype Cross Asset Leading. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article A. · tested 2026-10-31

Rolling 60-day realized volatility of CME Lean Hogs returns, z-scored on a 3-year window, the vol-regime overlay for the Lean Hogs stack.

BacktestThe signal detected 20 of 26 major market crashes (77%), with an average early warning of 60 trading days (12 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article A. · tested 2026-10-31

Takes the weekly CFTC Lean Hogs managed-money net position in number of contracts (sourced from the legacy CFTC Lean Hogs feed in the symbol database, itself downstream of the CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report released Fridays at 3:30 PM Eastern). Z-scores the series over a 1,260-session rolling window with a 252-session minimum. Flips the sign so that crowded-short specs read positive and crowded-long specs read negative. Output bounded between minus-one and plus-one. State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme). The structural read is contrarian: positive signal says specs are crowded short and the next directional surprise skews bullish-forward in Lean Hogs; negative signal says specs are crowded long and the next surprise skews bearish-forward. Edge concentrates in the tails; the middle is close to noise.

BacktestThe signal detected 19 of 24 major market crashes (79%), with an average early warning of 91 trading days (18 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article A+. · tested 2026-10-31

Iowa State University monthly estimated returns to farrow-to-finish hog producers, z-scored but not sign-flipped, read as a cycle-contrarian anchor against Lean Hogs forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 15 of 16 major market crashes (94%), with an average early warning of 98 trading days (20 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article A-. · tested 2026-10-31

North China Plain precipitation framed as a feed-cost gauge for the restructured post-ASF Chinese hog industry, byte-identical by construction to its demand-pulse sibling with the same empirically-inverted polarity at the extremes.

BacktestTruthSayer B. · tested 2026-10-31

Dryness in China’s biggest hog-production belt, read as the engine’s a-priori demand-pulse call that the 34-year engine data partially inverts at the extremes.

BacktestThe signal detected 20 of 25 major market crashes (80%), with an average early warning of 54 trading days (11 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B / article A+. · tested 2026-10-31

USDA AMS daily average hog carcass weight year-over-year, inverted and z-scored, as a short-pull supply-pressure read on Lean Hogs forward returns.

BacktestTruthSayer B-. · tested 2026-10-31

Iowa and Minnesota precipitation across the biggest US hog-production states, read as an experimental signal that the engine author has flagged as not working at practical horizons.

BacktestThe signal detected 22 of 25 major market crashes (88%), with an average early warning of 54 trading days (11 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B- / article A. · tested 2026-10-31

Heat stress in China’s biggest hog-producing belt, read as a daily signal for how much US pork the Chinese market will pull over the next sixty days.

BacktestThe signal detected 18 of 24 major market crashes (75%), with an average early warning of 53 trading days (11 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer C+ / article A-. · tested 2026-10-31

USDA AMS raw-daily pork carcass cutout year-over-year, z-scored and tanh-bounded, as a near-real-time wholesale demand regime read on Lean Hogs forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 13 of 13 major market crashes (100%), with an average early warning of 13 trading days (3 weeks). archetype Regime Specialist. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer C+ / article B. · tested 2026-10-31

The composite ratio of lean hog deferred contracts to the front-nearby, z-scored over two years and inverted, as the full-curve read on persistent current tightness.

BacktestThe signal detected 21 of 24 major market crashes (88%), with an average early warning of 59 trading days (12 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Macro Monetary. TruthSayer C+ / article A-. · tested 2026-10-31

The year-over-year rate of change in live cattle futures, z-scored over two years, as the slow retail-protein substitution tide under pork prices.

BacktestThe signal detected 15 of 24 major market crashes (62%), with an average early warning of 163 trading days (33 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer C- / article B+. · tested 2026-10-31

The year-over-year rate of change in the US Dollar Index, inverted, as the macro tide that pushes US pork export demand up or down for the next quarter.

BacktestThe signal detected 15 of 24 major market crashes (62%), with an average early warning of 105 trading days (21 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Fx Macro. TruthSayer C- / article A. · tested 2026-10-31

Pulls the quarterly USDA Hogs and Pigs breeding-inventory national total from the NASS table, computes a four-period percent change (year-over-year), forward-fills across trading days between quarterly releases, z-scores the YoY over a 504-day rolling window with a 60-day minimum, inverts the sign so that a contracting herd reads positive, and bounds the output with tanh. State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme). The signal is a continuous read of the same underlying number that drives the event-driven Hogs and Pigs Breeding Surprise signal; it is designed to carry structural-lane context between quarterly releases rather than to time the release itself.

BacktestTruthSayer B-. · tested 2026-09-27

A five to six month leading read on US pork supply, built from Canadian feeder-pig imports. Falling flows tend to tighten supply and lift Lean Hogs; rising flows tend to weigh on prices.

BacktestTruthSayer C+. · tested 2026-09-27

A read on CME Lean Hogs supply built from the shape of the futures curve. When the back month trades at a premium to the front, forward returns tend to run positive; when the front trades at a premium, forward returns tend to run flat to negative.

BacktestTruthSayer C+. · tested 2026-09-27

Computes the ratio of Lean Hogs front-month price to Corn front-month price, taken from the canonical first-nearby back-adjusted continuous series for both markets, z-scores the ratio over a 504-day window with a 60-day minimum, inverts the sign so that compressed ratios read as positive, then bounds the output with tanh. Positive = bullish-LH twelve months forward (producer stress is leading indicator of herd contraction and supply tightening); negative = bearish-LH twelve months forward (producer profit leads to herd expansion and supply loosening). State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme).

BacktestTruthSayer B+. · tested 2026-09-27

Reads the quarterly NASS Hogs and Pigs breeding-inventory print (national aggregate, released approximately the 23rd of March, June, September, and December), computes the deviation from the trailing twelve-quarter (three-year) rolling trend, scales by the trailing standard deviation, and inverts the sign so that a tight herd reads positive. Fires on the release date; decays exponentially over the next ten trading days (tau = decay/3); returns to zero outside the event window. Output bounded with tanh. State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme). Positive signal = tight breeding herd = bullish Lean Hogs six to twelve months forward (gestation plus finishing lag). Negative signal = expansion = bearish forward on the same horizon.

BacktestTruthSayer B-. · tested 2026-09-27

Reads the USDA NASS monthly pork cold storage total against its five-year same-month seasonal norm, z-scores the deviation on a monthly scale over 120 months, inverts the sign so pipeline tightness (storage drawing below norm) reads as positive, then bounds the output with tanh. Positive = bullish LH; negative = bearish LH. State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.5 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.9 (extreme).

BacktestTruthSayer B-. · tested 2026-09-27

Computes the NASS monthly pork cold-storage YoY, z-scores it over a 504-day window with a 60-day minimum, inverts the sign so pipeline tightness reads as positive, then bounds the output with tanh. Positive = bullish LH; negative = bearish LH. State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme).

BacktestTruthSayer B-. · tested 2026-09-27

Pulls weekly federally-inspected hog slaughter totals (hogs, all classes) released each Friday for the prior week. Compares against the same week one year earlier (365-day pct_change on a forward-filled daily series), z-scores the YoY ratio over a trailing 756-day window with 252-day minimum, and bounds the output with tanh after a sign inversion so that a slaughter surge against year-ago reads as negative-for-LH. State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme). Carries a corn-belt PDSI drought amplifier and 2019 ASF / 2020 COVID / 2022 PEDv Gaussian dummies as reduced-form controls, but the primary input is the weekly YoY ratio.

BacktestTruthSayer B-. · tested 2026-09-27

USDA Texas hay and alfalfa cash prices year-over-year, z-scored on two years, the regional roughage feed-cost read on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 3 of 5 major market crashes (60%), with an average early warning of 96 trading days (19 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster China Demand. TruthSayer A- / article B-. · tested 2026-09-30

USDA NASS cattle carcass weight year-over-year, z-scored on two years, the direct US supply pipeline pressure read on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 4 of 8 major market crashes (50%), with an average early warning of 158 trading days (32 weeks). archetype Cross Asset Leading. regime cluster Crisis. TruthSayer B+ / article B-. · tested 2026-09-30

WOAH (World Organisation for Animal Health) global anthrax outbreak report cohort-count, z-scored on five years, the zoonotic bacterial disease supply-disruption signal for CME Live Cattle.

BacktestThe signal detected 21 of 22 major market crashes (95%), with an average early warning of 63 trading days (13 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer B+ / article A-. · tested 2026-09-30

USDA weekly export sales to South Korea year-over-year, z-scored on two years, the #1-destination beef demand-pull signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 13 of 17 major market crashes (76%), with an average early warning of 150 trading days (30 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer B+ / article B-. · tested 2026-09-30

USDA weekly export sales to Japan year-over-year, z-scored on two years, the Japan beef demand-pull signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 14 of 17 major market crashes (82%), with an average early warning of 174 trading days (35 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer B+ / article A-. · tested 2026-09-30

US Drought Monitor coverage across the beef-belt states (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska), z-scored on two years, the pasture-stress supply precursor for CME Live Cattle.

BacktestThe signal detected 16 of 24 major market crashes (67%), with an average early warning of 118 trading days (24 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Crisis. TruthSayer B+ / article A-. · tested 2026-09-30

BLS CPI retail price for 100-percent ground beef, year-over-year z-scored on a two-year window and bounded with tanh. The consumer-side demand pass-through lens on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 18 of 25 major market crashes (72%), with an average early warning of 128 trading days (26 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B+ / article B. · tested 2026-09-30

BLS Producer Price Index for processed foods and feeds, year-over-year z-scored on a two-year window, the broader food-inflation context anchor for CME Live Cattle nominal prices.

BacktestThe signal detected 18 of 25 major market crashes (72%), with an average early warning of 192 trading days (38 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B+ / article A. · tested 2026-09-30

UN FAO Cereal Price Index year-over-year, z-scored on two years and tanh-bounded, the global grain-stress feed-cost transmission signal for CME Live Cattle.

BacktestThe signal detected 16 of 25 major market crashes (64%), with an average early warning of 234 trading days (47 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B+ / article A-. · tested 2026-09-30

USDA NASS steer share of commercial cattle slaughter, z-scored on five years, the herd-phase composition signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 20 of 23 major market crashes (87%), with an average early warning of 87 trading days (17 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer B+ / article B. · tested 2026-09-30

USDA PSD global beef production YoY (US weighted 2x, world 1x), tanh-negated and z-scored, the international supply signal on CME Live Cattle.

BacktestThe signal detected 12 of 25 major market crashes (48%), with an average early warning of 139 trading days (28 weeks). archetype Cross Asset Leading. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B+ / article A-. · tested 2026-09-30

A monthly climatology z-score on China’s forty-percent-of-national-slaughter hog region, read against US fed-cattle forward prices.

BacktestThe signal detected 23 of 25 major market crashes (92%), with an average early warning of 76 trading days (15 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer B+ / article A+. · tested 2026-10-31

USDA NASS weekly pasture Good+Excellent condition across TX/OK/KS/MO, z-scored on two years, Grade C+ regional pasture-quality overlay on CME Live Cattle.

BacktestThe signal detected 7 of 7 major market crashes (100%), with an average early warning of 99 trading days (20 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer B / article B-. · tested 2026-09-30

USDA NASS cattle placements year-over-year, z-scored on two years, the forward slaughter-supply overlay on CME Live Cattle at the 4-6 month horizon.

BacktestThe signal detected 24 of 24 major market crashes (100%), with an average early warning of 34 trading days (7 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer B- / article A-. · tested 2026-09-30

US Dollar Index inverted and z-scored on two years, the US beef export-competitiveness signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

BacktestThe signal detected 19 of 25 major market crashes (76%), with an average early warning of 240 trading days (48 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer C+ / article A-. · tested 2026-09-30

CME Lean Hogs continuous front-month year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years, the livestock-cycle co-movement overlay on CME Live Cattle.

BacktestThe signal detected 21 of 25 major market crashes (84%), with an average early warning of 159 trading days (32 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Macro Monetary. TruthSayer C+ / article A+. · tested 2026-09-30

USDA AMS LM_CT100 5-area weighted-average cash cattle price minus CME Live Cattle first-nearby futures, seasonal-detrended and z-scored, as a Grade C directional signal with marginal daily and non-overlap IC. Material improvement vs prior formulation but weak directional spread.

BacktestThe signal detected 21 of 25 major market crashes (84%), with an average early warning of 246 trading days (49 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer C+ / article A+. · tested 2026-09-30

Rolling Lo-MacKinlay variance-ratio statistic on CME Live Cattle, signed by recent 20-day direction, Grade C+ market-microstructure predictability overlay.

BacktestThe signal detected 25 of 25 major market crashes (100%), with an average early warning of 25 trading days (5 weeks). archetype Regime Specialist. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer C+ / article B+. · tested 2026-09-30

Peer-complex 20-day return weighted by rolling 63d R-squared of LC vs peers, Grade C+ systematic common-factor signal.

BacktestThe signal detected 25 of 25 major market crashes (100%), with an average early warning of 37 trading days (7 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Macro Inflation. TruthSayer C- / article A. · tested 2026-09-30

BLS retail beef average price year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years, the retail consumer-price pass-through signal on CME Live Cattle.

BacktestThe signal detected 16 of 25 major market crashes (64%), with an average early warning of 232 trading days (46 weeks). archetype Crisis Detector. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer C / article C+. · tested 2026-09-30

USDA NASS Beef in Cold Storage YoY, sign-flipped and z-scored on two years, the consumer-pull proxy signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

USDA boxed-beef cutout minus live-cattle input cost, z-scored on two years, the packer-margin dislocation signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

USDA AMS boxed-beef cutout year-over-year, z-scored on two years, the absolute-cutout demand-cycle overlay on CME Live Cattle.

BacktestThe signal detected 15 of 15 major market crashes (100%), with an average early warning of 5 trading days (1 weeks). archetype Regime Specialist. regime cluster Volatility. TruthSayer F / article C. · tested 2026-09-30

CFTC Live Cattle commercial NET position divided by open interest, z-scored on a rolling two-year window and sign-flipped so that producer over-hedge prints positive composite, the classic feeder lock-in pattern.

USDA NASS semiannual beef cow herd YoY, sign-flipped and z-scored on two years, the longest-lead structural supply signal on CME Live Cattle.

USDA NASS Cattle on Feed total placements year-over-year with 5-year median-absolute-deviation z-score as a Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

BacktestTruthSayer B+. · tested 2026-09-27

USDA NASS Cattle on Feed total inventory year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years, the on-feed stock-level supply signal on CME Live Cattle.

BacktestTruthSayer B-. · tested 2026-09-27

USDA Choice minus Select boxed-beef cutout spread, z-scored on two years, the beef-grade demand preference signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

USDA NASS cow slaughter (excl milk) year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years, the Grade B herd-liquidation signal on CME Live Cattle.

BacktestTruthSayer C+. · tested 2026-09-27

CME Feeder Cattle minus Live Cattle front-month spread, z-scored on two years, the direct feedlot replacement-cost signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

CHIRPS Kansas-Nebraska feedlot corridor 180-day rainfall anomaly, inverted and z-scored on two years, Grade A regional weather signal on CME Live Cattle.

Backtestarchetype Regime Specialist. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer C / article C. · tested 2026-09-30

Feeder-Cattle to Live-Cattle price ratio, z-scored on five years, the feedlot margin squeeze signal with Grade A directional edge on LC forward returns.

Backtestarchetype Regime Specialist. regime cluster Other. TruthSayer C / article C. · tested 2026-09-30

Rolling Hawkes-style jump-cluster intensity on CME Live Cattle, Grade B market-microstructure overlay capturing endogenous volatility clustering regimes.

BacktestTruthSayer C+. · tested 2026-09-27

USDA NASS Cattle on Feed heavy-class (>900 lbs) placements year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years, the Grade B+ near-term supply signal on CME Live Cattle.

BacktestTruthSayer B-. · tested 2026-09-27

USDA NASS cattle marketings year-over-year inverted and z-scored on two years, the Grade A pipeline-flow signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

BacktestTruthSayer C+. · tested 2026-09-27

CME Live Cattle full term curve composite (L2/L3/L6 vs L1 average), z-scored on two years, the strongest-IC directional signal in the LC fundamental stack.

BacktestTruthSayer C+. · tested 2026-09-27

CHIRPS Texas Panhandle precipitation inverted and z-scored on two years, the regional weather magnitude overlay on CME Live Cattle feedlot throughput.

BacktestTruthSayer C+. · tested 2026-09-27

USDA weekly cattle slaughter year-over-year change, z-scored on two years, the realized supply-flow signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

Ratio of Live Cattle front-month to corn front-month price, z-scored on a rolling two-year window and sign-flipped so compressed feedlot margins print positive. The feedlot-margin cycle driver of cattle supply 6-12 months forward.